Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 – Stage 2 Preview
A long day on the bike tomorrow with nearly 200 km to be raced. They finish the stage with a lap in Follonica.
Route
The riders head south tomorrow.
The riders approach the lap from the north and does 1.5 laps.
Here is the last five as usual.
A right turn in a roundabout 4500m out. You want to be near the front, as they go from double-lane to single-lane. Shortly after, roughly 4250m out, they go below a bridge that could cause some problems if they are not prepared. The road splits in two again with 2500m left. Once again, a spot where you can lose the wheel of your teammates. From there, the dive until the last corner 350m out. If you are not in the first five wheels, winning the stage will be tough.
4250m out.
2500m out.
350m out.
Weather
Not a lot of wind, it should stay dry and above 12 degrees C.
Contenders
Having a good lead-out is the key tomorrow.
Caleb Ewan – the pocket rocket has been more of a dust bunny this season. He still struggles with positioning, it has always been his weak side. Walscheid and Campell Stewart are by no means poor at their job, the difficult thing for them is making sure Ewan is trusting them enough to stay in their wheel.
Jasper Philipsen – the best sprinter of 2023. I’m not really surprised he didn’t fight for the win in KBK, he told pre-race that he is far from his best form. However, he should be contesting the sprints here and be the man to beat. Jonas Rickaert is his support. He is a good lead-out man and they do have some muscle too. However, his dominant Tour de France 2023 was due to Mathieu van der Poel. Can they handle it without him?
Mark Cavendish – he had to leave UAE due to illness. Now, two weeks later, he is here. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to click for Bol, Mørkøv and himself. Tomorrow is a great chance if Mørkøv still has it in him to deliver him perfectly.
Biniam Girmay – struggled with positioning Down Under. Looking at the team, I notice a Dutch rider by the name of Mike Teunissen. He is a great lead-out man, and I do think Laurens Rex and Hugo Page provide him with very good support in the finale. On paper, he has one of the best lead-outs. But his speed doesn’t match the likes of Philipsen or Merlier.
Ethan Vernon – I don’t have a lot to compare him with. He mainly did 2.Pro races last season and beat sprinters he was supposed to be beating. What I do know is his consistency. With track background, he knows how to position himself in a sprint. Van Asbroeck and Corbin Strong provide good support on paper but the latter is not a lead-out man.
Jonathan Milan – He will be guided by Theuns and Consonni. Not a half-bad set of riders. They have the speed for the dive into the last corner and he has the speed to finish it off. I think his achilles heel is the battle for positioning, and I’m not certain Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana fixed that already despite a win on stage 3.
Tim Merlier – best sprinter of 2024. When you take three stage wins in UAE Tour with that field of sprinters, you simply make a statement. On paper the team doesn’t look super strong, I hope I’m not steeping on any toes saying Warlop and Van Lerberghe propably not are the best in the world but perhaps I’m the one missing something. Because the trio has won 5/7 mass sprints they’ve contested in 2024. They work very well together.
Marius Mayrhoffer – usually needs a tougher day to fight for the stage win. I would imagine a top-10.
Søren Wærenskjold – not certain which Norwegian to go for. I hope they ride for Søren, he is a gifted sprinter that climbs far better than you’d expect. Not that it matters tomorrow. Him and Kristoff sometimes create magic but I think they are overmatched by a few teams tomorrow.
Phil Bauhaus – he is good at being in the right spot. With Arndt and Pasqualon, I’d imagine he will be a podium contender simply due to his ability to always find a good spot in the sprint.
Who will win?
A battle for the Belgians. Jasper vs Tim. It will be a messy sprint, I’ll go for Tim Merlier.
