Tour de France 2025 – Stage 2 Preview

It is a stage where the first question to ask is: who will chase the breakaway?

It is the longest stage of the race and has 1900 climbing meters (2500 meters on Veloviewer). Most of the climbing is in the second part of the stage, and I highly doubt the teams with a designated sprinter to control the stage. As I wrote in the GC preview, the GC teams will just use that to attack on the last climbs and distance them.

Route

As mentioned, mostly flat with four tough hills in the last 35 kilometers of the stage.

Westbound towards the coast.

Weather

Wind from the WSW. Rainy start with a chance for it to clear up. As they approach the coast, the wind picks up. I would dare to throw the echelons-alarm in the last 50 km. It looks like the weather we saw today, tomorrow it just rains too.

Finale

Here in 2D with the climbs in the left column. It is the last two climbs and of course the finish in Boulougne-sur-mur that are key.

Here in 3D. As you can see below, positioning will be important tomorrow. Both ahead of Côte du Haut Pichot and later for Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont.

Côte du Haut Pichot

1000m at 10%. Very sharp corner and the road quality doesn’t look the best. That often means the climb is more difficult than the numbers suggest.

Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont

900m at 11.3%. The run in is very difficult. Two roundabouts beforehand, bunch of road furniture and a S-curve. Single-file run-in from the peloton. Very quick descent unto the penultimate climb.

Côte d’Outreau

Once again, straight out of a corner and back to climbing. Just 5300m from the top to the finish.

Descent and run-in.

Downhill on a very narrow road. Then as they turn right, they reach proper roads.

Boulougne-sur-mer

Starts off tough and then a false flat finale.

Contenders

First off, I think it looks too difficult for the sprinters. We know Team UAE loves to race aggressively, they will not let this stage become a day for the sprinters. I also know that Vingegaard should be able to cling on to the attack and will not cooperate with Pogacar, despite the fact he should. Why? Bonus seconds if it just the two of them. Otherwise, Jonas will get none.

With a chance of echelons, rain and the distance it will simply be a hard stage. Therefore, the sane pick is towards a reduced bunch sprint.

Pogacar – crosswinds, long distance and hills are some of the reasons. His team clearly isn’t build for this with mainly Politt and Wellens not afraid to do the dirty work. But for the three of them, it is just back and do it again. Helpers or not, he is gifted when it comes to positioning. It would help to have more teammates around him, especially if they are going to launch an attack.

Vingegaard – He was proactive today, a bit like in Dauphiné. He took KOM points, started the echelons. He looked confident. I think Visma-LAB to some extent looked good – and Affini just showed why he got a bib number on his back. They will be well-positioned as always, it is just difficult to see him out-sprint his competitors.

Evenepoel – has to race offensively now. I thought they had learned their lesson. Even with half a squad designated to a sprinter, who excels in echelons, he was caught off guard. I expect to see him on the offensive tomorrow, the terrain suits him.

Roglic – has to race offensively now. See above. Not even with the Van Dijke brothers and Van Poppel he could position himself well enough.

Mathieu van der Poel – they were the team of the day. Always in front. Playing PCM with their competitors. I’d expect the same tomorrow, but his team can only get him so far, when the terrain starts to rise.

Skjelmose – had a spell of pure misfortune and I guess he just didn’t make the front quick enough. Two punctures today. It gives him freedom tomorrow, and he will love the hilly terrain.

T. H. Johannesen – UNO-X looked good today. The team is good on days like this. He has already shown great form in Dauphiné. He finished in the front group today, a positive sign.

Vauquelin – the shape is good. He was also in the right group. Positioning tomorrow can become an issue but he managed fine today on his own.

Simmons – late attack / breakaway hope. For a long time, it looked like he could snake his way through the peloton as he wished. He shows great confidence and his shape was good in Tour de Suisse.

In the end, I doubt anyone can match the speed of Mathieu van der Poel.