Tour de France 2025 – Stage 1 Preview
First of all, I can’t promise a preview for every stage. The plan is to write previews for the first week and then take it from there.
The riders begin their journey around France in the northern part. The first stage takes place around Lille and with just 1100 climbing meters and a distance of 185 kilometers, it will be a day for the sprinters.
Route
Good to have Veloviewer stages profiles back.
The riders ride clockwise and the blue line below is the neutral start.
Weather / echelons
Before we start talking about the finale, it is smarter to talk about which riders will actually be there. With the wind blowing from the SW (7 m/s), it means crosswind. The first 41 km of the stage is pure headwind. I doubt many riders will be eager to join the breakaway.
At that point, the riders face a small kicker of 1300m at 6.7% and a fast descent. First KOM points of the race too. Then, it is on. Once they leave Hazebrouck with 90 km left of the stage, there is an open area that looks inviting.
As they progress and start going back towards Lille with 62 km left, it opens up again. The thing is, many of the sectors are fairly short. The organizers have made sure they visit as many towns as possible. That means the sectors get broken up.
Then we have the wind speed. 7 m/s is a lot. In the northern part of the route, the prediction is 8 m/s. It isn’t a certainty we will see echelons, despite the open terrain now and again. If I had to guess where we they will happen it is with 141 km – 125 km left or 69 km – 53 km left. Any closer the the finish, too many will be observant and already placed near the front.
It will be cloudy, not too cold or too warm and with a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Finale
In the 5000m – 4000m sector there are few speed bumps, and just after the corner with 3800m left one set of road furniture. Other than that, pretty simple. The last straight isn’t that wide. So a late surge is not recommended, you’d want decent sprint train despite it being a boulevard sprint.
Who will win?
Merlier – it would be a shame to say that he isn’t one of the best in the world right now. Despite the fairly poor sprint train, he seems to get results. Two wins in UAE Tour, two in Paris-Nice and lately two in Baloise Belgium Tour. He can win on the big scene. Now, with only Eenkhoorn and Van Lerberghe, it does look difficult. Then again, he is used to it. If we see echelons, I doubt he will miss it.
Milan – he has more support. Stuyven, Theuns and Consonni are expected to be working for him. Having an extra man makes it easier to burn a match early and make up for lost ground. It seems to me that is the fastest man in the world. However, there are occasions where the legs are empty when he has to sprint.
Phillipsen – it has not been a good year for him. I think that will change. The team is fairly dominant in this terrain. MvdP, Rickaert and Groves. Plus the legs looked good at nationals. He really just has the advantage of having the best lead-out man there is. He too should not have any issues with echelons.
Girmay – he has not had a great season either. He is without a win. Last year, he took three stage wins and a green jersey. That seems unlikely this year. With Rex and Page to guide him, I think a top-5 is very likely.
Meeus – he is in great shape. With the Van Dijke brothers and van Poppel, he isn’t in lack of support. I’d expect him to fight for a top-5 too, I need to see how well they work together. It isn’t a lot the four of them have worked together.
Who will win?
I will take jersey and stage win for Tim Merlier. For the sprinters, it is all about confidence.
