Tour de France 2025 – Preview
I’ve decided to chip in to the annual previewers highlight – Tour de France. The first half of the race is bumpy and has a flat individual time trials. The GC battle itself mainly will take place in the second part of the second week and third week. This isn’t to say that we will not see some gaps in the GC in the first eleven stages. Those gaps are just not sufficient enough to tell us, who is going to win this edition. So, I will go through some of the stages on a superficial level and drop my favorites for the stages. For some of the other stages, I will deep dive into their importance.
Stage 1
One for the sprinters. With just five corners inside the last 5 km, on paper it doesn’t look too difficult. Then again, remember this is the Tour de France. Everybody wants to be near the front to avoid crashing and everyone is willing to sprint for some UCI points in the top-15.
The favorites are Merlier, Philipsen and Milan.
Stage 2
It would be very surprising, if the yellow jersey does not change hands here. The last time the Tour de France visited Boulougne-sur-mer was back in 2012. Peter Sagan did his famous “running-man-on-a-bike” celebration. Now, the run-in was a bit different. In 2012 they had three climbs before the finish. Côte de Herquelingue (1500m at 5.5%), Côte de Quéhen (1500m at 5.3%) and Côte du Mont Lambert (1500m at 6.4%). And despite the finish being in the same location, they took a different approach to the last climb.
In the 2023 edition, I would argue it is a tougher finale despite the profile score from PCS tells otherwise. Côte de Saint-Étienne-au-Mont (1000m at 9.2%) and Côte d’Outreau (800m at 8.0%). With Boulougne-sur-mer just a stones throw away from the two last-mentioned climbs, I can’t see a scenario where someone does not attack and distances the sprinters. I think the most important thing is to be in a good position with 10.4 km left of the stage, so having a good team will be important.
The favorites are Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel and Roglic.
Stage 3
Talk about a flat stage. I just checked the weather forecast for this one. It looks both rainy and windy. There is a chance this becomes a transport stage, or a day where some fool of a took sits in the back of the peloton and throws away his GC (I’m not sure why I’m thinking of Ben O’Connor and Felix Gall here). However, the sprinters will not miss this.
The favorites are Merlier, Philipsen and Milan.
Stage 4
This is a well-designed stage. Everything comes down to the last 29 km. An important corner again just further away from the finish. We will have learned on stage 2 which teams get it right. I’m a fan of this because the finale is so technical. The Rampe Saint-Hilaire looks brutal and it will be the first time they use it – always nice they still have new places to visit and explore. On paper, it is as difficult as stage 2 and it is a stage with just 1300 climbing meters. Once again, someone will make it a GC day.
The favorites are Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel and Alaphilippe.
Stage 5
A time trial. A flat one. I’d expect the biggest GC contenders (Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Roglic and Almeida) all being within 45 seconds of each other. We saw in Dauphiné that Evenepoel is the best against the clock.
The favorites are Evenepoel and Ganna. I’d expect a win for the Belgian Bullet.
Stage 6
They have thrown in another hilly stage inside the first week. This would be a perfect stage for the breakaway. Your usual throw-away-the-jersey stage. It is too difficult for the sprinters and if they insist on having their team chase all day, Team UAE will just set up for an attack. It is a day for the puncheurs.
The favorites are Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel and Quinn Simmons (from the breakaway).
Stage 7
Mûr-de-Bretagne. This time an exact replica of the 2021 edition. Mathieu van der Poel won on that day. Usually, the winner falls upon who attacks at the right time and place. The same happened in 2018 with Dan Martin winning and in 2015 with Vuillermoz. So who will fly under the radar, has the acceleration to get clear and the engine to stay that way?
The favorites are Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel and Kévin Vauquelin.
Stage 8
A day for the sprinters. The profile below does fool the eye. It is more hilly than what the bare eye can see. Still, it should be a sprint. A slightly uphill sprint, 1200m at 3%.
The favorites are Merlier, Philipsen and Milan.
Stage 9
Two in a row for the fast men.
The favorites are Merlier, Philipsen and Milan.
Stage 10
As of this moment, two things can have happened. The leader’s jersey is already on one of the main favorites – and they should look to give it away. Otherwise, someone is trying to keep it for as long as possible. Nonetheless, this will be a very difficult stage to control. The first chance for many to get up the road. It is up or down all day with little to time to catch a break.
I’m not impressed by the difficulty of the climbs but other factors play in. It is day 10 without a rest day. It is the first proper test with longer efforts. And after all, we are talking 4300 climbing meters. I think it will be a day for the breakaway.
The favorites are T.H. Johannesen, Onley and Cristián Rodríguez.
Stage 11
After a rest day in Toulouse we have stage profile that is only out to trick you. It is not a typical sprinters stage. It will be one good old cat’n’mouse this one. Breakaway plays their cards right, and then they can keep the peloton at distance when they reach the hills. With the last climb 8500m from the line, I doubt many GC men want to attack that far out but 800m at 12.4% does sound nasty. I doubt we will see a sprint. With the day after the rest day, usually some guys are rusty. There is a chance that we see someone lose valuable time. It is a breakaway or a reduced bunch sprint. With Hautacam the day after, I’m leaning breakaway.
The favorites are Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel and Grégoire.
Stage 12
Now, the GC battle begins. A flat start means it will be very difficult for a strong climber to get up the road. They must use the slingshot method. By the time the breakaway has formed, it won’t be long before they start climbing. It screams GC to me. Col du Soulor is just an easier version of the Hautacam. I think it is just there to thin out the peloton. A little kicker on the descent before the Hautacam.
Last used in 2022 with a victory for Vingegaard. This was stage 18 and in general a much tougher stage. This will likely not be as dramatic and with the same huge time gaps. Still, it will be the first test on the climbs for the favorites.
The favorites are Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Stage 13
A mountain time trial! I love these. All about planning. The GC men will be the favorites again, as they will start late and therefore have recovered more.
The favorites are Pogacar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard.
Stage 14
5000 climbing meters. Col du Tourmalet usually means Visma-LAB will try something, as Vingegaard tends to do best on very long climbs. Therefore, I’d expect them too. But with three valleys left to go, I doubt they will succeed. They would need more than Wout van Aert for this to suceed. And I doubt UAE will fall for the same tactic again.
Therefore, I think it will come down to Luchon-Superbagnères. It isn’t a climb that has been used in my lifetime. After a full day of climbing it will be tougher than it looks. This is one of three important mountain stages. I think this stage will tell us who isn’t going to win.
The favorites are Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Stage 15
It looks like a day for the breakaway. Pas du Sant is just too difficult for the sprinters. The start is too easy for the climbers. You’ve guessed it. Rouleur.
The favorites are Cort, Vauquelin and Healy.
Stage 16
A rest day the day before this. Straight into a Mont Ventoux finish. I’ve never understood these stages. This merely comes down to what does Team UAE want. I think Pogacar has the jersey now, I’m just not certain of the margin. Do they want to have Colgate-Nils keeping everything in order or are they happy with giving the breakaway 10 minutes? I think the latter. Plus, it will be the last chance for their helpers just to get a smell of freedom
The favorites are Felix Gall, Lenny Martinez and Skjelmose.
Stage 17
No shenanigans here. A day for the sprinters.
The favorites are Merlier, Philipsen and Milan.
Stage 18
The second important mountain stage. Perhaps the most important. This stage has the three longest climbs of the entire Tour all put into 171.5 km. We are talking 5500 climbing meters.
I think it will blow up on Col de la Madeline. Then, the setup is having someone in the valley between Col de la Madeline and Courchevel. It is a different approach compared to the 2023 edition. The day Pogacar died (inside). The reasoning for the attack on the penultimate climb is simple. Col de la Loze isn’t very steep. If they want to get rid of eachother, it must happen before hand. At least with the intention to tire your opponent out.
The favorites are Vingegaard, Pogacar and Felix Gall.
Stage 19
The third and last stage to crack your rival. Easier than the day before but then again. That should play a factor. The last chance for many to get a win from the breakaway. And I don’t see anywhere obvious for a long range attack. The valley is too long between the last two points. Breakaway win with a GC battle on La Plagne.
The favorites are Mas, Lenny Martinez and Lipowitz.
Stage 20
Not a very kind edition for the sprinters. With 2900 climbing meters and after two days in the mountains they give another one two the sprinters. Who still has something left?
The favorites are Valgren, Mohoric and Stuyven.
Stage 21
They’ve changed it up. A few times up the Montmartre on cobblestones. I doubt it chances all that much.
The favorites are Philipsen, Merlier and Milan.
The general classification.
- Tadej Pogacar. He was to dominant in Dauphiné for any sane person to say otherwise. The first part of the race suits him very well. He will get a lot of bonus seconds and will really only be tested on three difficult mountain stages. Now, the heat has played a role before and it could again.
- Jonas Vingegaard. The only one that can beat him. He has had a better preparation this year. Plus, the routes suits him much better with three very difficult mountain stages. That is just a simple fact. There is a lot of optimism in his camp at the moment and they will need to keep it. He will be the who has to attack in the second half of the race. Does he have the team for it? I think they can isolate Pogacar but that is not the same as dropping him.
- Remco Evenepoel. I think the race suits him well. He will enjoy the hilly start, what he won’t like is this positioning his teammate can give him. He was third last year and proved that he can do well in the third week. I think VPP was a fantastic signing for him but I doubt he will have enough support try anything really.
- Primoz Roglic. He hasn’t finished the race since 2020. It is just not a good stat. With fever days for the sprinters perhaps it will be less chaotic at times and that speaks for him. I would be stupid to write him off the podium. He has a strong team for both parts of the race, with Lipowitz as the young apprentice.
- Joao Almeida. He has been winning this year. Basque Country, Romandie, Suisse. Now, I think the reason I’ve always had a tough time with this rider is the fan base. Yes, those are great wins but look at the competition and ask yourself again. What I do like about Joao is the consistency. He has never placed outside a top-10 in a GT and he is good on the toughest days. He finished ten minutes of the podium last year.
Honestly, I don’t think there is a reason to mention more. C. Rodriguez, Jorgensen and Lipowitz should all finish in the top-10 as well. I will take a win for Pogacar and hope my eyes show be something else, when I watch stage 18 and 19 in the Alps.
Thank you SanLuca for the stage profiles. It is the best free tool out there, and that comes from someone who must have written a thousand previews soon.
