La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024 – Stage 9 Preview
The first week ends with a mountain marathon in Andalucia, finishing in Granada. The riders are still in the south of Spain, and what awaits them are 4400 climbing meters.
Route
The start is not flat. It more or less goes up or down the first 50 kilometers. It is not the steepest or toughest climbs there early on but two of them are 7 km at 4-5%.
After 50 km of racing, they have 40 kilometers of flat before the finale ultimately begins. That means eating, peeing and likely the bunch sitting up just for a few moments to catch their breath.
The riders ascent Puerto de El Purche once and Alto de Hazallanas twice. The descent is the same from both climbs, meaning they will know it much better the second and third time around. The Alto de Hazallanas does have a longer descent, meaning the first third of it isn’t done the first time going down after Puerto de El Purche.
I would argue the finish line may as well be at the top of the last peak. The flat section of 7000m afterwards will not be very threatening as they have time to breathe on their way down.
The riders start south and move their way up north. Once they hit the climbs, they do 2.5 half laps before going to Granada.
Opening climbs
This isn’t the hardest opening to a stage I’ve seen. Far from it. The more rouleur and medium-mountain vibe you get from 50 km like this means a pure climber is a bit less unlikely to make it up the road. On the other hand, it could be such a hard start that only climbers sit in the peloton after 40 km of racing. It is easy to control, if you set a fast pace. Will they?
Remember, they primarily head north here.
Puerto de El Purche
It was last used back in 2022 as a prelude to Sierra Nevada. Now in 2024, it will serve as a prelude to Alto de Hazallanas. It should take around 25 minutes I’d say. It is the opening 3200m at 10.2% that makes it so tough. From there on out, it is fairly irregular with everything from 400m at 14.4% to 300m downhill. It is extremely hard to find your rhythm on a climb like this.
The descent – not as tricky as it seems. The roads are new and wide.
Then their is the middle part. The valley so to say. It is an important bit I will expand on later in the preview.
Alto de Hazallanas
They do it twice. With 61.5 km left and 30 km left. It is very steep at the bottom. We are talking 4 km at 11.2% in the first half. That is including a 300m plateau, so the gradients are closer to 13-14% average.
From there, it gets a bit easier. The damage has been done on the lower slopes.
It was last used back in 2015, Alberto Contador won that day ahead of Froome in Vuelta a Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol. The gap between them was 19 seconds, and Contadors gap to the third man across the line was 1:39. I think it paints a picture.
As mentioned, some of the descent has already been ridden by them but not the earliest part. The first five are done on new ground.
They then proceed to do the same again. Valley, Alto de Hazallanas and descent before the final 7000m on the flat, though slightly downhill
Weather
A fairly windy day. And a warm day. A tailwind to start with.
On the circuit, plus Puerto de El Purche they do have a tailwind. Then the steep part of Alto de Hazallanas is with a crosswind, and the easier part towards the crest with a headwind (on the 6-7%).
Tactics
Ben O’Connor sits in red. Very stupid of him to lose 46 seconds. Icarus O’Connor got to close to a Slovenian Sun once again (Pogacar Giro 2024, he did the same thing and blew up). 3’49 is still a lovely margin. He should have a great team to support him Armirail and control the opening 50 km and he will have VPP, Bouchard, Berthet and Gall for the climbs. I think they will let the breakaway go, they are defending the jersey and that is top priority. That means not spending too much too early.
Bora-Hansgrohe seems like the team that can shake things up. I think they could look to do some damage here. The thing is, on Alto de Hazallanas, it is mano e mano. A strong team does not help you. Everyone behind after the first steep section on Alto de Hazallanas will not have many helpers, unless they wait for them. That is the time to strike. Despite their names, we have not seen them perform very well on the more explosive stages. I think they will set Primoz up perfectly roughly 30 km out.
All in all, Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe doesn’t need to chase the break. They need to distance Ben O’Connor. We may see Nico Denz control the breakaway, if Primoz Roglic wants a third stage win and bonus seconds on Alto de Hazallanas and at the line. That must be the plan. It leaves very little wiggle room for anyone hoping to win from the breakaway.
However, the mythical valley, is an interesting sector. Is it worth spending domestiques in the peloton, are people who’ve attacked waiting up, knowing it is suicide. I think this is a good section for the breakaway, atleast it can be.
Contenders
Primoz Roglic – he starts as the favorite and so far, it is difficult not to point at him again. I think to some extent, his closest rivals (Mas and Landa) are willing to cooperate if it benefits themselves. The battle for top-10 is far from settled, meaning a lot of people want to move up still. On a day like this, he rarely has an off day.
Enric Mas – I underestimated him, he is doing mighty fine. He did the same thing as Carapaz, riding well late in the Tour as preparation for the Vuelta and I overlooked it. When Mas is in this shape, he likely will be on of the riders finishing in the top-3 in Madrid. He often goes well on these tough days, I think he will be one of the best in the GC group.
Mikel Landa – same goes for Landa. Good on double-digits. It has actually been impressive to see him go so well on the shorter climbs they’ve done so far. I think Landa with Mas will be the ones closest to Roglic.
Carlos Rodriguez – positive signs coming from him. I think he will do well.
Antonio Tiberi – often very consistent. He will hope this is a day where his legs are made of diamonds.
Sepp Kuss – a mountain marathon suits him more than an explosive ramp. Let’s see if we have some redemption or the legs just are not there.
Ben O’Connor – if he rides this smart (this means not trying to follow Roglic), then he will be alright. Felix Gall will be worth his weight in gold today. He will stay in the jersey but loosing almost a minute yesterday was frankly stupid.
Richard Carapaz – I think he will do better than the best finishes. He isn’t a puncheur, he is a diesel.
Brandon McNulty – breakaway hope #1
Who will win?
Primoz Roglic.
