La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024 – Stage 2 Preview
Route
A hilly start in Cascais, before the long ride up to Ourém. It is typical for Iberia to not rolling terrain, and therefore we have a stage with 2400 climbing meters.
The riders head north tomorrow.
Breakaway formation
It is a hilly start but there is only one categorized climb. The climb in the middle of the profile below is 2.5 km at 6.2%, a good kicker as well. The last one is 1.6 km at 7.1%. So there are ramps to attack on, and the teams with sprinters must set a tough pace on these climbs.
Finale
It is difficult to say when and where it starts. You could argue 69.5 km from the line is more accurate, I’ve gone with 31 km left. Two climbs: first one 2.1 km at 5% and the second one 2.6 km at 6.5%. It is the last one that can become an issue for the sprinters. I do think there is a slim chance of a disorganized peloton at the top, meaning attacks could follow. But they would be wise to have caught the breakaway by now, and that can prove difficult.
It is then a fairly simple finale. They approach the five km mark with high speed, and the roundabout with 3300m left where you can take both sides (right way quickest). Then the road gets twisty. A roundabout 1800m out with a passage on the left. And the last one 900m out, where you also must pass on the left. The road rises near the end, but not above 3%.
Weather
A lovely headwind will likely not have many riders going in the breakaway. The wind changes as the approach the finale and head east, meaning the climbs will be ridden fairly quickly.
It also means the breakaway can play poker and save themselves for the last 32 km, and that could make them very difficult to catch.
Contenders
In general, you want to be on the front foot after the climbs. It is very difficult to move up in the last kilometers, as there are descends and plenty of turns in the city. A long sprint train is advised.
Wout van Aert – I’d imagine the team will support him in the finale but he is very capable to do it on his own. He does not have a designated lead-out man, and I’m not certain Affini climbs well enough to be there in the finale.
Kaden Groves – it will be Alpecin-Deceuninck that do the hard work tomorrow. I don’t see many experienced lead-out men. He is here for stage wins and a jersey and the team is not worse than in 2023. There he took three wins in total.
Corbin Strong – a tough stage is good for him, I just don’t think he has the top speed to win here. The team also lacks a bit of support, only Sheehan packs some good speed.
Arne Marit – another lone sprinter it seems. He likely won’t get a lot of help, and he rarely wins.
Pavel Bittner – took two stage wins in Burgos. Not the toughest field but it builds confidence, but he is also here with limited support.
Bryan Coquard – usually on his own, hopefully he can have the team help him on the climbs. It is their go-to approach. It is a good stage for him, one where he should finish in the top-3.
Who will win?
These stages often get ridden faster than you think. I’ll take jersey and stage win for Wout van Aert.
