La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana 2024 – GC Preview
The last Grand Tour. As usual in Spain. In this preview, I will go through all the stages, note down the most important stages and of course try to predict the winner.
Stage 1
A time trial in Lissabon. Almost completely flat, and I think there is only one corner here.
Stage 2
One of the stages that should be a sprint. It is not an easy day at all, the start could make for an interesting breakaway. There is a 2500m – 6.5% climb just 26 km from goal, here we can see a few of the heavier sprinters getting distanced.
Stage 3
It should be for the sprinters as the have so few chances this year.
Stage 4
It should be the give-away-the-jersey stage. That was when cycling was a bit more simple. Pico Villuercas has a 2200m at 14.2% segment – so do expect GC movement late on.
Stage 5
I had a colleague tell me we only have two sprints! This certainly looks like the third already.
Stage 6
A medium mountain day. It looks threatening, it will not make a difference in the GC. A day for the breakaway.
Stage 7
The sprinters will hope it is a day for them. Alto del 14% is kind enough to give away it’s max gradient, 1000m at 11.3%. I 7.4 km at 6% is too difficult for most sprinters, and if they try to race for the stage win, I think teams will attack on the steep part.
Stage 8
It should be another stage for the breakaway. It is a steep finale, with the last 1000m at 9.4%. It could be easily controlled by a GC team, if they think their top man can take the stage win and the bonus seconds. Otherwise, it looks like a breakaway stage.
Stage 9
The first stage above 4000 climbing meters. It looks like they’ve found hell on earth, and it is close to Granada. It looks like the classic “breakaway will take to long to form stage”, and the GC guys will have this. You can do immense damage on the steep slopes of Alto de Hazallanas.
Stage 10
Classic breakaway stage. A medium mountain stage.
Stage 11
Another one for the breakaway. A fuga-de-la-fuga stage, as riders will try to build a lead before Puerto Cruxeiras. It is also a stage where it is up or down all day, with little time to rest on the flat.
Stage 12
Breakaway. Again!
Stage 13
I will say GC day. Puerto de Ancares is 5 km at 11.6% and it looks like the surface is closer to concrete than tarmac, which usually makes it tougher.
Stage 14
I wonder how they found a 22.8 km climb only at 4%. It is Jebel Jais, just easier. I tip the breakaway.
Stage 15
Another very tough stage. Very short with a finale of 2800m at 13.4%. I will go GC day, it is easy to control the shorter days.
Stage 16
Another of the tougher stages. Lagos de Cavodonga. The men used it back in 2021, with Roglic dismantling his rivals. It should be a GC stage too.
Stage 17
A game of cat and mouse. The first half is where the breakaway will hope to build up a lead, and then we will see if any teams with a sprinter is intact and ready to chase.
Stage 18
Same goes here. Cat and mouse. The climbing does come later in the stage but the opening phase is easier to control.
Stage 19
A stage with a demanding finale. It is easy to control, which often means a GC stage. On the other hand, they may be conservative with the next stage in mind.
Stage 20
The most demanding stage I’ve seen so far. You can really shake things up and set up tactics that could pay off. A stage of endurance.
Stage 21
Finishing with a time trial in Madrid. A longer one.
Important GC stages
Stage 9 – the first big test. Three tough climbs, 4500 climbing meters. The damage can be done from a long way out and that often means the gaps will be even larger.
Stage 13 – just 5500m of cruelty near the end. I think this is the easiest of the stage mentioned here as the overall toughness of the stage isn’t the hardest.
Stage 15 – same goes for stage 15. Not the toughest stage but with 2800m at 13.4% big time gaps will be made.
Stage 16 – one of the toughest ones here. Likely the third most important stage after stage 9 and stage 20. History tells us that this stage creates time gaps.
Stage 20 – the toughest stage by far. A mountain marathon.
Stage 21 – especially since it comes after stage 20, it makes it even more important. Whoever recovers best will gain time here.
Contenders
Sepp Kuss – last year’s winner gets the first few words. He had close to a three minute gap on Evenepoel after taking the leader’s jersey after stage 6 here in 2023. Same to Ayuso and Almeida. He had a larger gap to all three of them in Madrid. We all know he is a fantastic climber and Visma-LAB have build a very good team around him, I would even say it is close to what they brought to the Tour de France. He will lose time against the clock, I assume 1:30 – 2:00 in total to Primoz and Almeida. But the steep finales are very, very good for him. I’d imagine he will be close to the podium. Top-5.
Primoz Roglic – Winner of the 2019, 2020 and 2021 edition. Since then, it has been a Giro d’Italia win in 2023 and a 3rd here in 2023. He crashed late in the Tour de France this year, later than usual but in 2021 he had the same preparation more or less. In 2022, more or less the same as well. So, we know he will be ready. With Martinez, Vlasov and Lipowitz, it will be interesting to see if everyone is behind Primoz. In all likeliness, yes. However, keeping a few riders in the GC for stage 20 is not a bad idea. He should finish in the top-3.
Joao Almeida – his first Tour-Vuelta attempt. It is often easier than the Giro-Vuelta one, and I don’t even know why. He finished the Tour de France well, and we know he has what it takes to get a prime result. The time trials are good for him and from time to time, he does very well on long climbs. The issue is, these often shorter and steeper. It doesn’t suit him. A top-5.
Adam Yates – I think he is the best option for Team UAE. No, he likely didn’t have the best Tour de France. Yet, I do wonder how much he had the Vuelta a Espana in mind when he rode it. His best ever result in a Grand Tour is 3th, but he really strikes me as a rider who could improve that. I have a gut feeling telling me that he will be the absolute best version of himself this Vuelta. He will finish in the top-3.
Carlos Rodriguez – I was a bit dissapointed in him for the Tour de France. He often gets better as it gets tougher that just didn’t seem to be the case in the Tour. I think he will finish in the top-10.
Thymen Arensman – co-leader!? Finally. It will be interesting to see how he goes, when he won’t have a first week where he can’t sit up. I think it will be a big test but he has done the Giro-Vuelta double a few times now but it has not been working. I think a top-10. He is more of a diesel as well and therefore the route is not perfect for him. He is a great time trial rider to cover up for that.
Mikel Landa – 5th in the Tour de France as a helper. Despite a long career, it is his first Tour-Vuelta attempt, where he has ridden GC in both of them. Last year, his 5th in the GC was also due to the fact that he was in the same breakaway as Kuss on stage 6 and it got him a two minute advantage over many. I think he will finish in the top-5.
Richard Carapaz – he finished the Tour de France on a high. The same he did back in 2020, where Movistar helped Roglic win the overall in front off Carapaz. Scenes. I don’t think the route suits him perfectly as a diesel, therefore I think it is most sane to put him in a top-5 category (or three breakaway wins).
Ben O’Connor – I have a difficult time rating him. His 4th in the Tour de France back in 2021 was due to a win on Tignes. So, if you don’t think about that, you rate him better than he actually is. I’d imagine just outside the top-5.
Mattias Skjelmose – it is race with very few mountain marathons, and he is one of the riders it actually suits. He has proven himself to be a very good week-long racer the issue is the Grand Tours. Only time will tell if he can become a fantastic GC rider, I think his form at the Olympics looked great. But his best GC result is 29th at the Tour de France 2023. A top-10 here.
Who will win?
I’m going for Primoz Roglic. Adam Yates and Sepp Kuss behind him.
