Olympic Games 2024 – Men’s Elite Road Race Preview.
A trip around Paris you could almost say. When you look at the profile, you would instantly think of a classics in March or April. However, there is not as many cobbles as I had imagined. It makes it end up somewhere closer to an Ardennes Classic without a trademark climb or a certain point where you confidently say “this is where the magic happens”. There is no Kruisberg-Eyserbosweg, no Mur de Huy and certainly not any Côte de La Redoute.
Route
It is a war of attrition. 271.9 km and 2300m of climbing. I think it is exciting that they’ve gone with a route where both sprinters, puncheurs and climbers stand a chance of taking a medal. What I have noticed is the pre-finale, starting from Côte de Senlisse to Côte du Pavé des Gardes. It is an interesting area, where I think many will be tempted getting up the road.
The route takes the west of the capital, before heading south. It is in this area, when they start heading north east towards Paris again, that the wind direction and weather will start to play a role. And also where the pre-finale is.
The pre-finale
It starts roughly 110km from the line. We have a series of six climbs inside these forty kilometers, averaging 6%. I just have to be brutally honest with you readers. This should not be a section where anyone of importance to the gold medal is dropped. However, it will be the area were domestiques will be send up the road. I’m think riders such as Evenepoel, Skjelmose and Alaphilippe.
Côte de Bièvres and Côte du Pavé des Gardes seems like the best places for this. It is after they’ve just done four climbs and it is closer to Paris. That means it goes to crit-racing not long after the climbs have been done.
Finale
Now, they have not made it easy to understand. This is likely because every time we have laps or circuits in a championship race, the finish line is a part of them. This time around, it isn’t. The riders do two full laps followed by a third ascent of the Côte de la butte Montmartre. After the third and last time doing it, they take a different turn on the descent that follows it. Here you have the lap, this is the second lap closest to the finish. The first lap begins with 48 km left of the race.
In general, I think it is fair to say it isn’t a technical route, not like in Glasgow 2023. It isn’t as demanding in terms of climbing as Worlds in Wollongong 2022 either. I would argue it is more similar to Leuven 2021, as we have a few climbs and not a very technical route. In terms of numbers, you would put it between Leuven 2021 and Glasgow 2023.
There are a few spots with cobblestones. The climb with 35 km and 16 km left has a short 500m section on 3%. The main cobbled climb is the Côte de la butte Montmatre, 1000m at 5%. And bear in mind, these cobblestones have not been thrown down from the sky in an arbitrary fashion as we sometimes see in France (L’Enfer du Nord). These are better placed. However, they are still cobbles, and near the top of the climb, it is unbelievable narrow.
And what I think can be of importance too is the descent, as the first 300m afterwards are on cobblestones too. Not everyone will enjoy that left hand turn on the cobbles.
Not a lot left, just the last kilometers for the medals. They take a different turn on the descent after the climb. They go back the same way they approached the laps 40 kilometers ago, but they take a right hand turn once they get across the Seinen. The last turn is fairly close to the line, just 250 m out. They will have the Tour Eiffel behind them and the Palais de Chaillot in front of them as they finish on the Pont d’Iéna.
Weather
22-24 degrees C. I don’t spot any rain at all, which makes it a bit less selective than it could have been. I notice a tailwind on the pre-finale section, and that certainly will have an impact on how teams approach the race. The wind will blow from the SW but it likely will not matter a lot on the circuit.
Tactics
I will go out an say that some of these points were made by David Hunter (cyclingmole), Matteo Jorgensen and https://x.com/Fugadelafuga1.
Let’s talk about some of the vital things for the race. First of all, they are not many racing. Just 89 riders, 20 of which are on conti level. In 2016, they were 144. In 2021, they were 128. I have absolutely no clue who makes these decisions to have less riders starting but they should cut down on drinking. That means the largest teams consist of four riders. There are not a lot of domestiques to pull.
With such a small peloton, and so few riders likely willing to take turns near the front, one could argue the best defense is to go on the attack! When you look at a team like Belgium or France, please be kind enough to tell me which of their riders willingly will be the domestique on Saturday. And many of the other teams are also made up around multiple captains. Being up the road looks beneficial.
With so few riders, and a staggering 271 kilometers it will increase the fatigue. You can’t hide between as many riders as you usually would. It was a point made by Matteo Jorgensen.
The cobblestones are next on the agenda. They are better than the ones in Arenberg but in all honesty, so are most cobblestones. It is still city centre, and they likely look better on Google Maps/Veloviewer than they do in real life. The cobblestones work as a trigger. Everyone expects attacks, meaning everyone will go quicker and quicker to stay near the front in order to be able to follow moves. With everyone being ready for attacks on Côte de la butte Montmatre (1000m at 5%), I think some riders should look outside the book and attack elsewhere.
It is a race without radios. I think that is a foolish thing. It is a useless idea. Nonetheless, riders themselves need to monitor moves themselves. I’m uncertain if they just shout riders attacking and wait for a response from their captain (seems inefficient). It always makes for a more chaotic race.
What is the best preparation for Olympics (or often Worlds)? As for Worlds: 2023 (MvdP), 2022 (Evenepoel), 2021 (Alaphilippe), 2020 (Alaphilippe), 2019 (Pedersen), this is a 3-2 win for Tour de France participation. In terms of the Olympics, Carapaz participated in the Tour de France in 2021. In 2016, Greg van Avermaet participated in the Tour de France. Same goes for Vinokourov in 2012. In general, having participated in the Tour de France often gives you an edge.
I think in terms of team strength, there is one team that stands out. Belgium. I don’t think they will have Stuyven or Benoot work in favor of Evenepoel or Wout van Aert. They are here to play a role too, even if that role means just sitting on a frustrating other riders. They dictate the race. Trying to understand and comprehend their tactics is not something I will go into this time. I think Wout van Aert rides for the sprint, and Evenepoel will go on the attack. It worked well in 2022, but that route also suited Remco a lot. I think Evenepoel and Wout van Aert both start as top-5 favorites. Being on the same team together is a huge plus.
The last factor is the internal teams vs the national team. How does this play out? Is there any chance some riders are not willing to take turns because it is their team mate up the road? (ie Stuyven refuse to chase Mads Pedersen or WvA refuse to chase Laporte). It seemed to play quite the role in Tokyo with UAE/Ineos riders not chasing when McNulty/Carapaz are ahead. Last WC Philipsen accidentally made public that there was an agreement he wouldn’t have to chase MVDP. You make up your own mind about it.
Contenders
Belgium – they start with the best team. I think it only enhances the chances of all of them winning. Let’s start with Evenepoel, who with an Olympic gold medal a week ago has proven he came out of the Tour de France well. It was expected. I think the pre-finale is where he should attack and hope to stay away. He isn’t the best on cobblestones, so therefore he needs to make his move before the circuit. Wout van Aert should mark very few people tomorrow. Mathieu van der Poel, Pidcock and Mads Pedersen would be my best guess. A short list of quick riders he must close down, either to beat or to help Evenepoel. Wout was 2nd in Tokyo 2021, he is a fantastic rider when it comes down to these championships. Furthermore, I would like to comment that he is going well here a few weeks after the Tour de France. I would like to agree with both Mole and Jorgensen in saying that Jasper Stuyven was an absolute beast in the Tour de France. He is a dark horse, and we saw in Leuven his is a fantastic championship racer.
Mathieu van der Poel – he does not fool me with his shape being a bit off in the Tour de France. Same thing happened in 2023. When you think of a rider, who only gets better as the race gets tougher. I’d think of Mathieu and Tadej. The Slovenian just isn’t starting. The Dutch rider took a win at Flanders and Paris-Roubaix this year. He can cope with the distance. If he is in the same shape as in 2023, he can cope with the altitude meters too.
Mads Pedersen – he didn’t have the preparation he wanted, and ultimately that is going to cost him. He didn’t seem to miss a lot of training but history has shown that Pedersen usually goes well as his number of race days goes up. Still, it is a good route for him and his engine. He was out-punched last year by Tadej, Wout and Mathieu – absolutely no shame in that. But it also tells you just how good he can be, and I think the route this year would have made it a fairer fight.
Julian Alaphilippe – there are some factors going his way. One, his shape looks pretty damn good. Secondly, he is a championship racer. Two time World Champion, and the win in Leuven in 2021 was on a similar course. He is as cunning as a fox and he has a fantastic mind for riding these long finales we get. The question is then: is his best good enough to compete against the new generation? On home soil, never rule out the French.
Tom Pidcock – just for one day I would love to has his self confidence. He thinks he can win gold on Saturday. I think that is a bit optimistic. He won the mountain-bike Olympics, I guess he has recovered from illness. I do just want to point out that the race on Saturday is going to be something completely different, and I doubt his body will respond well to it. He will not be 100%.
Michael Matthews – likely strong enough to hold on fighting for a top-10. He often does at big one-day races.
Who will win?
Belgium should win this. They have the team, the riders and form. In a coinflip between Evenepoel or Wout van Aert the latter will take it. Olympic Gold for the eternal number two, Wout van Aert.
