Olympic Games 2024 – Men Individual Time Trial Preview
The first discipline for the men. I remember seeing the time trial in Tokyo three years ago, a monstrous time trial they had that day. This is merely 32.4 kilometers (a shame if you ask me) and it is pancake flat.
Route
As mentioned, there is not a lot to talk about. The first part until the first checkpoint is extremely simple. I think they have two hit the breaks twice in the opening 13 km.
It does get a bit more tricky in the second section. In the Bois de Vincennes, there are more twists and turns compared to the first sector.
And the last is their journey home. Very simple.
Heading east in the first half, heading back west in the second half.
Weather
The first rider is down the ramp 16:32 and the last rider is expected to be done 18:03. This is according to PCS. That means a tiny window where almost everyone is guaranteed the same weather conditions.
I see different forecasts. I see some that says it will be rainy (MeteoFrance) and others say it will be dry from noon (Yr). In all honesty, I trust the Norweigan Metrological Institute more than the French one.
Wind from the west/north west. It gives them a tailwind out and a headwind home. Not that the speeds are high at all and since they ride in Paris, I doubt the wind will play a large impact.
Contenders
Remco Evenepoel – the Belgian Bullet would have prefered a more demanding route. When he became World Champion in 2023, the route was both longer and had a bit more climbing in it. Still, Evenepoel is one of three big favorites tomorrow and he should be. The main question is, did he finish the Tour de France on a high? I would say that he did. He was just competing against superior riders.
Josh Tarling – the new kid in town. He kicked the door open last season with a third at the World Championship in 2023, and a year later one must expect him to be even better. I notice he has only beaten Evenepoel once at Chrono des Nations very late in the season. It means he can compete agasinst the best, and I don’t think Tarling could have hoped for a better route.
Filippo Ganna – a completely flat time trial. Very few could beat him here a few years back. He beat Evenepoel and Tarling on similar routes in 2023, and just like Tarling he could not have hoped for a better route. It is odd that this is only his second time competing at the TT discipline at the Olympics, and I don’t think he will get a much better route than this to win gold.
Wout van Aert – he is definitely a shout for a top-5. A panflat time trial is good for him, and he did get better as the Tour de France progressed. I highly doubt he will finish among the best three but he should not be far off.
Brandon McNulty – he has not ridden any major races since Tour de Romandie three months ago. It has just been been with one goal in mind, the time trial tomorrow. In his junior days, he and Mikkel Bjerg were dominant against the clock and it is clear the American has not lost his appetite for the discipline. I think he will finish in the top-5.
Stefan Küng – I think a few may have forgotten that Küng dropped his chain against the clock in the Tour de France and that likely costed him a few placings. It is a good route for him, and he is usually consistent in getting good results against the clock. A top-10.
Mikkel Bjerg – you could add both Danes here, I don’t think anyone of them is good enough to get anything better than a top-10. And at the Olympics, that is a very fine thing to get.
Who will win?
I will take a win for Filippo Ganna. With potential wet roads, his technical skills come in very handy. With the headwind home, his posture will carry him a long way home – it is very important to sit perfectly on your bike in the last sector. This route reminds me, in terms of elevation and wind, a lot of Imola in 2020.
