Tour de France 2024 – Stage 19 Preview

The first battle. First of three. Today and tomorrow and hard stages in the Alps and Sunday is the time trial in Nice.

Route

Three categorized climbs. Three very difficult and tough climbs. They start with the Col de Vars, before Cime de la Bonette taking them 2800m above sea level. And then the Isola 2000, that has not been used since 1993 when Tony Rominger took infront of the Miguel Indurain.

From Embrun in the north to Isola 200 in the south.

The three categorized climbs

The first climb of the stage is Col de Vars. Irregular and with a plateau in the middle. This should be were the breakaway forms.

The mythical Cime de la Bonette. They used it back in 2016 in the Giro d’Italia, but it is not a climb I’ve witnessed watching. It is extremely long and as mentioned above, the crest is 2800m above sea level.

Isola 2000 is the last climb. Regular, long. Steepest at the bottom and mostly staying near 7%.

Weather

Not a warm day on the bike. The riders will have a tailwind throughout the day, meaning we should see fast climbing times.

How will the stage unfold?

It seems only two teams bring tactics to this race. The team that has succeded the most are Team UAE. Tadej Pogacar is the strongest rider in this race by a landslide. Do they want to control the stage and set up an attack on Cime de la Bonette. On paper, it isn’t the best climb for him but I have a feeling he has improved a lot on longer intervals. Twelve months ago, the panic buttom would have been pushed on a stage like this but they seem to have things under control this year. I think they can decide the outcome tomorrow, their team is very strong and good enough to control the difficult breakaway formation on Col de Vars.

Visma-LAB are the second team. With Wout van Aert and Bart Leemen being allowed up the road today, I have my doubts regarding Vingegaard tomorrow. It seems Evenepoel is starting to grow stronger as the race goes on, much as he said pre-race. I think that Visma-LAB must try on Cime de la Bonette tomorrow, it is, in theory, the climb that suits Vingegaard the best this edition.

So does that mean game over for the breakaway? Certainly not. Perhaps Team UAE decide the best thing they can do is to let a breakaway get up the road and just let Pogacar attack on Isola 2000. Perhaps Visma-LAB have lost all morale and ride for second. With Col de Vars being the first climb of the day, we could see many riders hoping to get up the road and take the stage win.

Contenders

Tadej Pogacar – he must start as the favorite tomorrow. I think he could easily have followed Evenepoel on stage 17, he just decided that it wasn’t his gap to close. History shows that long climbs and altitude has been issues for Pogacar, he just seems better this year. We will figure out tomorrow if he has gotten better in the heights.

Jonas Vingegaard – I don’t think he is looking any good. Everyone can have a shit day on the bike, it is just not common for him to have one in the third week on a relatively easy stage in terms of importance to the general classification. I think he sits in second place tomorrow.

Remco Evenepoel – I don’t think we can draw a conclussion from stage 17. Evenepoel distanced Vingegaard, and had it not been for Visma-LAB, then he would have put in some time. It was a more explosive stage, which any day of the year will favor the Belgian.

Richard Carapaz – breakaway hope 1. High altitude and top shape. I’m not certain it was smart getting up the road again today but the team orders are clear. Everyone up the road and seal the deal. He is climbing very, very well just now.

Simon Yates – another breakaway contender. Simon Yates is in top-top shape but likely paced a bit wrong on stage 17. He should be one of the prime candidates to win from the breakaway.

Jai Hindley – breakaway hope #3. The team does a good job getting him up the road. A more classic mountain stage should suit him better than the medium-mountain stages.

Enric Mas – fourth and last breakaway hope. Just like Hindley, he is looking forward to longer climbs.

Who will win the stage?

I fear Visma-LAB have lost morale and Team UAE Emirates are satisfied with their current position.

A stage win for Tadej Pogacar.

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