Tour de France 2024 – Stage 18 Preview
This is the calm before the storm. One last day for the versatile breakaway riders to take their stage win, until it is the climbers and GC riders that will have the remainder of the stages.
Route
A medium mountain day you could argue. This is your classic breakaway stage but it does have a flat finish. Compared to yesterday, being a rouleur looks better. All of the climbs are sub-15 minutes and finish is flat.

The riders stay just west of the Alps.

Breakaway Formation
It takes a while in Grand Tours before the breakaway is formed. There are two categorized climbs, none of them very difficult. I think what will happen is a very large breakaway will form. Where is the best point, you ask me? I would go on the descent from Col du Festre if you are a good descender. Otherwise, the steepest sections on Col du Festre, Côte de Corps or the uncategorized kicker after 70 km.


Where will the fuga de la fuga happen?
This is what you categorize as the pre-finale. We have the last two categorized climbs of the stage, and may I add to that, two very tricky descents. The first climb is difficult enough for a team with a numerical advantage to set a high tempo and hope to thin out the breakaway. Or it is where a few strong climbers will hope to move up the road and form a coalition of 3-5 riders. Honestly, the climbs are not too difficult, I’m more worried about the descents. They are the tricky ones.


Finale
It is not very difficult. Uphill, yes but 1.3% and never above 6%. If you attack here, it is more about timing.

Up, flat, up, flat and so it goes on.

Weather
A day where the wind likely won’t play a big role. It stays sunny with mild temperatures below 30 degrees C.

Contenders
Wout van Aert – joined the breakaway today. I am uncertain if they have the same freedom tomorrow with the mountains looming in the coming days.
Jasper Stuyven – he was not very active today which was no surprise. I think it is fair to say the his legs are marvelous, and he was not been far off a breakaway win in Troyes.
Matej Mohoric – one stage left for him to leave his mark. He has not been present in many breakaways this edition. I have a feeling he has been saving himself for this stage.
Mathieu van der Poel – one last training ride for the World Champion. It should be a stage to his liking, and we already know from previous stages that his legs are becoming diamonds again.
Rui Costa – I think he is one of two options for EF tomorrow. He enjoys a medium mountain stage and he has a great sprint.
Magnus Cort – he burnes a few matches today but it was a very tough stage in the end. Given the immense dorm he is carrying, I think he will be up there tomorrow.
Alex Aranburu – did he spent to much today? I doubt it.
Oier Lazkano – he should enjoy a medium mountain stage if he has anything left in the tank.
Who will win the stage?
I will take a stage win for Matej Mohoric.