Tour de France 2024 – Stage 16 Preview
The last week. It starts with a flat stage, something the sprinters are very joyous about. It is also the last sprint stage of this edition, it feels odd writing that down before stage 16.
Route
Barely a climb in sight. It is a fairly long stage from Gruissan to Nîmes but there are only 900 meters of climbing.
The riders are now riding back in a northeastern direction, as they have to ascent a few mountains in the Alps later this week.
Finale
Roundabouts. They pass on the left hand side in the roundabout with 2500m and 1600m left. And they pass on the right hand side 900m out and 300m out.
Roundabouts in general stretch the group out. You really want to have a great lead-out man tomorrow.
Weather
A warm day in southern France. The wind will blow up to 25 km/h and that could be enough for echelons. I have been picking echelons correctly 0/2 this Tour de France but I do not think we will get them tomorrow.
How will the stage unfold?
Everything points towards a sprint from a rational standpoint. It is the last chance they have. But the best thing Intermarché – Wanty could do was let the breakaway have the stage. That limits Girmay’s chance of a poor sprint, or even worse a crash.
Alpecin-Deceuninck really want the green jersey, it is just difficult to chase with two riders less in your team than they began with. They will hope to form an alliance with Lotto-Dstny, as they still don’t have a stage win yet. Other teams that are build around their sprinter is UNO-X, Astana (down to five riders) and Decathlon AG2R. So in theory, there should be a few teams willing to chase but it is not certain they will.
Contenders
Jasper Phillipsen – fastest sprinter in this field by a landslide. I think very few teams will be willing to go up against him head to head, if they can avoid it.
Biniam Girmay – he has been very consistent and he clearly still has great legs. On paper, he has the strongest lead-out. He should aim for a top-3, if it comes down to a sprint.
Pascal Ackermann – he has been very consistent. A top-5 if we see a bunch sprint.
Arnaud De Lie – he is just out of position to often. They are greatly missing Jasper de Buyst this edition. A top-5 if we see a sprint.
Wout van Aert – they almost had it in the sprint the other day. I don’t blame them for trying, at least some are.
Mark Cavendish – a very flat stage. Mark Cavendish will dream of number 36.
Jasper Stuyven – breakaway hope #1
Magnus Cort – breakaway hope #2
Matej Mohoric – breakaway hope #3
Nico Denz – breakaway hope #4
Who will win?
With stage 17 and stage 18 looking very good for the breakaway, I think most riders will be happy to sit back. I will take a win for Jasper Philipsen.
