Tour de France 2024 – Stage 15 Preview
Pogacar punched back. They controlled the stage excellently on Col du Tourmalet. When Nils Politt is the one pacing, you know the pace isn’t through the roof. Tomorrow the peloton is up for round 2 in the Pyrenees.
Route
A very long stage with multiple climbs throughout the day. I notice the start will be extremely difficult. I also spot that there is almost a valley in-between most of the climbs and that makes it very difficult to set up any long-ranged attacks. Almost 2000 km and above 4600 climbing meters.
The riders are heading east tomorrow.
Breakaway formation
These are the opening 65.5 km and there are three categorized climbs, all of them category 1. It does mean that many climbers will be very optimistic when it comes to joining the breakaway, and that Team UAE will have to spend other rides than Nils Politt and Tim Wellens if they want to control it and have helpers after the third climb below – Col de Portet-d’Aspet.
In particular, Col de Menté looks extremely grim and bear in mind that Col de Portet-d’Aspet comes just after.
The calm before the storm.
As everything has settled down, there is a long flat section where the breakaway likely will continue to build up their lead. And this takes us to the two penultimate climbs, where only Col d’Agnes is categorized and rightly so.
Finale
Col d’Agnes is what begins it. We are still 59 kilometers from the line at the crest. And with a long, flat valley, this should be too foolish of a place to attack from Pogacar, Vingegaard or Evenepoel.
As you can see, there is a littler kicker from the top. Afterwards, the stage has another flat section taking them to the foot of the last climb.
Plateau de Beille is a tough, tough climb (use the drag function). It was last used back in 2015 on stage 12, seeing Joaquim Rodríguez winning ahead of Fuglsang and Romain Bardet.
It is toughest at the bottom, getting easier in the last third. On that day, Thibaut Pinot finished in the best GC group, climbing it in 45:08. It is a long effort this one.
Weather
A bit hotter than the last few stages. I can’t recall it has been 30 degrees C yet, at least not in the mountains this edition. It is not a very windy stage, but I do notice a tailwind in the last half. That should suit the breakaway.
Team tactics
Let’s once again start of with Team UAE Emirates. They did well today on multiple occasions. They used Nils Politt fantastically and later set up an attack with A. Yates before Pogacar just outclimbed his two rivals. This does not look to be the stage where you can slowly drain the energy of the Slovenian, as the valleys give him plenty of time to recover. I do however think that he could run into trouble on the last climb, but if A. Yates and Almeida are allowed to control the pace, I doubt he will get into trouble. As it eases off towards the top, it will be difficult for him to get distanced.
Visma-LAB don’t have the team to compete this year and certainly not their leader at full strength. They had a plan to stay in the peloton today, I think that was a bad call. They know everyone will be blown out the back door as soon as Team UAE feel like it and that means having a rider up front acts a small counter to that. I think it is a good climb for Vingegaard, a long 45 minute effort. Plus the stage overall likely will be tougher as the start is extremely difficult – and likely with multiple GC riders trying to sneak up the road. It is a warm stage where they need to keep their head cold. It is the last attempt in the second week where they can try to bounce back, and Plateau de Beille is luckily for them placed near the finish.
I don’t have much to say for Evenepoel or C. Rodriguez. The former lost Vervaeke today but we saw Jan Hirt do very well. I think they are happy in their current position. INEOS attacked with Kwiatkowski as I called out could be a smart move. The issue is that C. Rodriguez did not do well because the stage in general was so easy. I think he will have a better day tomorrow.
Contenders
Tadej Pogacar – he will be the bookies favorite and rightfully so. He has not been distanced once this edition, he has only been beaten in a sprint. Tomorrow is on paper the toughest stage and when we factor in the heat, I think he will look more mortal tomorrow. The last climb is long, and it has been on long climbs after a day with a lot of elevation, plus heat, that he sometimes has an off-day.
Jonas Vingegaard – I’m still finding it difficult to rate him correctly at the moment. Tomorrow is the stage that suits him the most throughout the Tour de France but he doesn’t have the same team around him. I think Plateau de Beille is a climb where he should put more time into Evenepoel, I don’t doubt that at all. I am just not sure he is good enough right now to distance Pogacar. I think the two of them finish together tomorrow.
Remco Evenepoel – I think it will be a very difficult stage for him, I often do. The past tell what I predict. I also want to praise him, he is not being as stupid as previous years. He finds his own pace and that is what he must do in order to stay on the podium.
Carlos Rodriguez – tomorrow is a stage where he must try taking minutes. Yes minutes on Evenepoel. That is no easy task and therefore he must try from afar. That is just so foolishly stupid with Team UAE pacing. He must do it at the right time, and that will be finding his own pace and diesel away from him. Simply just hope that Evenepoel is on a bad day and he is on a good one.
Simon Yates – breakaway hope #1. He tested the legs a bit today, showed his great form.
Richard Carapaz – breakaway hope #2. He missed the breakaway today, I doubt he will tomorrow.
Jai Hindley – breakaway hope #3. He should have an easier time hitting the breakaway.
Romain Bardet – breakaway hope #4. He already did the Giro d’Italia. Is there anything left? I think so.
Tobias Halland Johannesen – breakaway hope #5. Missed the breakaway today, I doubt he will miss it tomorrow.
Wout Poels – breakaway hope #6. An excellent breakaway rider.
Who will win?
I’m going breakaway. I’m taking Simon Yates.
