Tour de France 2024 – Stage 14 Preview

It is time for the first mountain stage since Col du Galibier on stage 4. The riders had a short test on Puy Mury but I need to remind you that the effort done there was extremely short compared to what you will see this weekend.

Route

They face the mighty Col du Tourmalet tomorrow, placed in the middle of the stage. It is followed by the easier climb, Hourquette d’Ancizan. Finally, Pla d’Adet where Majka took the win the last time they used it back in 2014.

A day heading south east in the opening 70 km. They they turn east up the Col du Tourmalet. The easier of the three will be ridden southwards while Pla d’Adet is using every direction possible to get to the top.

Col du Tourmalet

It is done from the opposite side than in 2023. The gradients are fairly stable around 7-9% but it is especially difficult in the last 4000m. It was used back in 2019 on stage 14, seeing Thibaut Pinot taking the stage win and KOM (48:47). It is a very, very tough climb.

The descent is difficult, and we’ve seen some riders excel downhill (Pogacar, Carlos Rodriguez) while others have had a inferior time going downhill (Vingegaard, Evenepoel).

Hourquette d’Ancizan

It is not a very difficult climb. If we’ve seen everything blown to pieces, it will be a place where you can win or gain time. I think many will do it in a delaying fashion.

Pla d’Adet

The last climb has not been used in many years. We have to go ten years back to find the last winner here, Rafal Majka. I would assume they will do it in 30 minutes or so tomorrow. I would argue you can split it in two sections. The first and difficult part and they second easier part.

This is the first and hardest part of the climb.

And this is the second part. It is after the left hand bend. The second part has a section with very poor surface, meaning the difficulty likely is harder than the gradients tell.

Weather

Not a lot of wind in the valleys but I notice a lovely tailwind on Col du Tourmalet. That should mean for a very, very quick ascent.

How will the stage unfold?

We are back in the mountains. First of all, we got to break down the elephant in the room – the flat start. It highly limits any pure climbers from going in the breakaway. That automatically makes me point towards a day for the GC.

So we are down to four teams with a contender, after Roglic unfortunately had to abandon. The first team is UAE Team Emirates. They still have the two strongest mountain domestiques here in Marc Soler and Joao Almeida. I think we will see them try to set up a tough pace, it is especially an excellent climb to test Evenepoel who still pose as a threat with the last time trial in mind. If I were them, I would send Marc Soler up the road as the satellite rider. On Tourmalet is when they need to be smart. Personally, I would set up a pace that Pogacar could do and hopefully hinder Jonas Vingegaard from attacking. Trust me, this is a much better climb for Jonas Vingegaard than it is for their leader. Almeida and Yates should not be blown out the back door, instead hope they can rejoin the best after the descent and the easier climb in between. If they get to the bottom of the last climb, with two-three helpers and a leader, they’ve done excellent.

Visma-LAB would under normal circumstances have drawn up a master plan to execute. Unfortunately, they lack firepower to do so. Get Wout van Aert up the road must be the first priority and hopefully his legs have gotten strong enough to climb fantastically. That is me being a bit optimistic, he likely will have a hard time climbing. Nonetheless, they need to figure out who is going to be their satellite rider, and I highly doubt Matteo Jorgensen will be allowed up the road. Tiesj Benoot is a second and undervalued option at this. They just can’t do what they’ve gotten use to and dictate a mountain marathon such as this. Jonas couldn’t drop Tadej on Tourmalet last year, and since it is the first climb of the stage, I doubt he can do it tomorrow.

Soudal-QuickStep are in a very strong position. Evenepoel has lost his closest rival, Primoz Roglic, and is now on his way to the podium in Nice. Who will they throw up the road? My initial though was Ilan van Wilder, who had a crash today. He should be their best card to throw up the road before Col du Tourmalet. Mikel Landa has climbed excellently as usual and will be his last teammate up the Col du Tourmalet. I think their hopes and goals are him not being distanced to much on the top of the Tourmalet and have Van Wilder and Landa close by to limit the damage.

INEOS-Grenadiers is the fourth and last team who will get my two cents on this matter. Carlos Rodriguez has not been as good as I thought he would. I had him right up there with Evenepoel and Roglic for the final spot on the podium. He is a diesel and therefore I do think he will go well tomorrow. He will only get better as this race goes on. They have plenty of options going up the road on the flat with Kwiatkowski, Pidcock or Castroviejo all being capable of joining the breakaway on the flat. Carlos needs to do well tomorrow, it is a stage where he must gain time on Evenepoel if he is to finish third in Nice.

I think UAE will dominate and dictate the stage tomorrow. If I know Pogacar well enough, then he is looking for redemption after failing to cement his dominance the other stage. He will be worrying about Jonas Vingegaard getting better, as any sane man should. I doubt he will attacking tomorrow, he will hope to beat them all in a sprint near the end.

So does that mean the breakaway has a free ride? No it does not. The flat start makes it very difficult for them. And UAE are more than confident enough to set it all up for the best bike rider in the world. It should be a GC day where I’d imagine INEOS will play a large role with UAE and Visma-LAB.

Contenders

Tadej Pogacar – I think an important takeaway the other day has been missed by a great deal of smart minds on X. I think the reason for Pogacar’s failed attack was due to the distance of it. He has never excelled at +40 minute efforts. That is why he will do all he can to stay with Vingegaard on the Col du Tourmalet. If he does that, then he should be home safe. The last climb suits him well. He starts as the favorite tomorrow, he just needs to race smart. This isn’t a Sunday ride in Italy.

Remco Evenepoel – I think he will drop down to third tomorrow. I can’t see him staying second with such a demanding course. He has become a better bike rider as of late. What I mean by that is a smarter bike rider, he seems to know his limits and trust his engine. That will get him far tomorrow. He must not get carried away and try to follow Pogacar or Vingegaard, he simply is a worse climber than both of them. Surviving Col du Tourmalet is the first step, the rest is more doable for him.

Jonas Vingegaard – the best thing he could do is attack on Col du Tourmalet with a rider up the road. The old-fashioned way. Jorgensen should be able to stay close to the best, meaning he will have one more rider coming back if the attempt fails. He only gets stronger as the race goes on, and now we’ve seen a hint of the 2022 and 2023 level that no other rider can reach. I just doubt he can drop Pogacar.

Carlos Rodriguez – He will sit closer to the podium tomorrow but not by much. I think the battle for third will be just as entertaining as the battle for first. He can hope to stay close to Pogacar and Vingegaard and then drop Evenepoel on the descent. That would but him in an excellent alliance with Vingegaard.

Santiago Buitrago – breakaway hope #1. Despite the flat start, it wouldn’t be his first breakaway win with no early climbs.

Jai Hindley – breakaway hope #2. Tour de France 2023 stage 5. He is sneaky enough to get up the road.

Simon Yates – breakaway hope #3. Same goes for Simon, he can get up the road on the flat. His entire team is now in search of another stage win.

Richard Carapaz – breakaway hope #4. He spent a bit of energy today but I doubt it matters. He is a GC rider meaning he can go on for days.

Tobias Halland Johannesen – breakaway hope #5. Same arguments as above.

Oier Lazkano – breakaway hope #6, a flat start is perfect for him.

Who will win?

I will take a stage win for Tadej Pogacar.

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