Tour de France 2024 – Stage 12 Preview

This feels like the most odd Tour de France to predict in a long time. The breakaway took forever to form, meaning they didn’t have a long distance to build up a gap. Tomorrow, they are back for another transportation stage.


A flat stage. To keep it simple tonight, it should be a sprint.



Approach the finale five kilometers, they are on a small road. There is not a lot of space to move up. Plus, the surface does not look the best at some points. With 3800m left, they start heading south. The width of the road is getting wider. There is some road furniture and a narrowing on the right side of the road heading down to the 2500m mark.

With 2250m left, they meet a roundabout and the must take the left lane. It will stretch the group out but it will not be a chokepoint. It is a vital point as the approach to consecutive corners heading under the 2000m mark. It is of the same importance as the roundabout, a place where we will see the group thinned out. It goes on with a right hand bend 1800m out.

We then have the last corner circa 1200m out, another left bend in a roundabout. Therefore, it is a finale that is about staying near the front but there is a lot of time to move up after the last corner. The width of the road is fairly narrow until the finale 1200m too and that makes it very difficult to do anything as there constantly are roundabouts, bends, road furniture or narrowings.


Mid-twenties and a tailwind for most of the stage. I see a few raindrops as well, meaning we could have local rainshowers.


Biniam Girmay – I must admit, I didn’t see him take two stage wins. The first of them was a boulevard sprint, just as we have tomorrow. I feel like an echo saying it but he has a fantastic sprint train. I’d imagine a top-5.

Jasper Phillipsen – they made it work. About time given their names. I think they will be dominant tomorrow, they have a lot of riders that are technically gifted. SKA and MvdP in particular. That should ensure that Jasper will stay very close to the front despite the hurdles in the pre-finale. I would argue that he should be the favorite.

Fernando Gaviria – he has been consistent, quick and very efficient when surfing wheels. Few can do what he can when it comes down to surfing wheels. I think it is fair to give him a shout, as his results have been solid this edition.

Arnaud de Lie – the Bull will be right up there again tomorrow but I doubt he can win a stage like this. He is perhaps a bit indecisive and often ends up boxed in.

Dylan Groenewegen – I overrated his train the other day. It is clear that it is hit or miss. Tomorrow, they will have a bit more time to move up their sprinter, and he does have the speed to finish it off.

Pascal Ackermann – consistent but not fast enough to win here.

Søren Wærenskjold – I hope they try and change it up a bit tomorrow. They have a fantastic sprint train but Kristoff have not been close the past two sprints.

Sam Bennett – Another top-10.

Who will win the stage?

Same old, same old. Jasper Phillipsen has finally taken his win, and he will continue winning.

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