Tour de France 2024 – Stage 11 Preview

Another false alarm. The wind didn’t blow enough for echelons. It was a transportation stage, meaning the riders rode towards something more difficult. It is the Massif-Centrale tomorrow, a place on earth where there are no flat roads whatsoever.

This stage is very similar to stage 5 in 2016.


Above 4000 climbing meters and 211 kilometers. This is a very difficult stage to control.

It is another day heading south.

Where will the breakaway form?

It is up or down in the first 90 km. However, there isn’t one large climb where you could easily point out a launchpad for the breakaway. It does mean one thing, getting in the breakaway tomorrow will take a lot of time and it can be difficult to spot the correct move.

Seeing this, I think the rouleurs stand a good chance of getting up the road. It could be a stage where it takes close to 100 km to get the breakaway established. A few riders hope it happens on Côte de Mouilloux or Côte de Larodde.


As I am a firm believer the breakaway has a good chance tomorrow, the fuga de la fuga likely happens fairly early. A big breakaway is a bad one. More often than not, attacking from the breakaway is the best option.

It will be a long finale. Some are going to attack before Col de Néronne and Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol. Col de Pertus is also a very difficult climb. It has to be a very strong climber than wins tomorrow and one that can do well on steep inclines.

Col de Néronne is the first of the climbs. It starts with 46.5 km from home.

Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol is up next. I remember the stage back in 2020 with Martinez (EF) going up against Schachmann and Kämna (Bora-Hansgrohe). It is a very, very difficult climb. It starts with 36.5 km left.

Col de Pertus is the penultimate climb, if we don’t count the ramp going to the finish line. It is not available on veloviewer with a good profile. 4.4 km at 8% but the two plateaus are steeper than that. It is two intervals of 2 km at 10% with a short plateau in the middle. It begins with 19.5 km left.

Here you have the last two climbs including the short descent.


Not too warm. Not too windy.


I’m all out for the breakaway tomorrow. I don’t know where the magic line is tomorrow, and who is allowed and who are not. I’d imagine many outside the top-10 will pose no threat. If UAE somehow decides to control the stage – and they succeed – it could be a stage win for Tadej Pogacar.

Guilio Ciccone – he poses as the biggest threat on this list. It just seems like a very, very good stage for him. His entire team is here to hunt stages now, and that means the LIDL-Trek slingshot 101. They just need to get as many as they can up the road and set up their captain.

Ben Healy – I think he will be one of the best from EF tomorrow. They have so many riders that fits the profile tomorrow. He is a diesel by heart and he is a very talented rider. One thing not going his way tomorrow is understanding the fuga de la fuga, he is very often on the back foot. However, the steep gradients is going to work wonders for him.

Tom Pidcock – I still think he is the choice from INEOS Grenadiers. He has become a far better climber in 2024 compared to his prior seasons. And the short, steep inclines are something that suits the Ardennes-specialist.

Richard Carapaz – he is the second and last EF option I mention tonight. He is a winner by heart and he is a very gifted bike rider. He isn’t on his best of seasons and the Tour de Suisse crash didn’t help him at all. Still, he should be right up there tomorrow.

Maxim van Gils – I have high hopes from him tomorrow. This is despite his poor form of late. Maybe he is a better one day rider than he is a Grand Tour rider. Nonetheless, he should go well tomorrow.

Tobias Halland Johannesen – the Norweigan climber should get in the breakaway tomorrow. His team is filled with riders who are fantastic in the first 90 km. He did well on stage 4, and that means his form is very good despite a season filled win mishappends.

Alexey Lutsenko – I think he will get in the breakaway tomorrow. He was good on the gravel stage and had attacks left in the tank near the finale, despite it not paying off at all. It will be a better stage for him tomorrow.

Wout Poels – he loves steep inclines and he has likely been saving himself for this day.

Kevin Vauquelin – it is a good stage for him. He enjoys short and steep inclines and he has a strong engine to get him in the breakaway. The time trial indicates that he still has more left in him.

Oier Lazkano – he is a breakaway specialist. The flat start is fantastic for him, in many ways it enhances his chances to get far in the breakaway

Who will win?

I think Wout Poels takes the stage win tomorrow.

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