Tour de France 2024 – Stage 10 Preview
Orléans to Saint-Amand-Montrond.
Start time 13:25. Watch from 17:00, it should be a sprint.
After a well-earned restday for preview writers and of course the bike riders as well, it is back to work. I think the first week was a great joy to watch and follow. A tough start and an early time trial really spices things up. The gravel stage was fantastic as well, I am a firm believer of both cobbles and gravel in a grand tour, as long as they are not too challenging.
Route
500 climbing meters. I think many riders will be happy to have an easy stage, knowing what awaits them in the last two weeks. And on stage 11 again, as the go through Massif Centrale.

And as a difference, the riders head south tomorrow.

Finale
Some of you may think the last little hill is something to worry about. It really isn’t. It is for the sprinters tomorrow, the pure ones.

As the approach the 5 km mark, they’ve come straigth from a descent. Expect very high speeds. It is a wide road but there is some road furniturew ith 4250 meters left. That may proff challenging.
There is a roundabout with 3500m left, that will be another choke point. They can take both ways around it, which is not very typical. I would argue the left side is the quickest but not by much.
There is more road furniture ahead of the left hand bend you see 2700m out. Nothing much happens until the most important four bends and turns of the day.

Everything will be single file from 900m out to 450m out. You can’t move up. It really is an important stage for the 4th and 3rd man in the sprint train. Then you just need a fantastic lead-out rider in the last 500 meters to move you up. The width of the road is wide and as it will be a single file, you just need to launch after the last bend.
Weather
A day where we could see echelons as the wind does get higher than 25 km/h (6m/s for sane people) and there is mostly a tailwind home. It is when they approach the 59 km left mark you really need to be aware and at the front.

Here you have an overview. It looks mighty open but it is the wind the decides the outcome. If the wind isn’t strong enough, the echelons are hard to create.

Contenders
Given the difficult finale, I will rate sprinters with a strong sprint train higher than usual. Especially the fourth and third rider could come in very crucial. Plus, they must be able to survive crosswinds.
Biniam Girmay – He is either winning or quite a few places off. Given his sprint train, I must rate him highly tomorrow. Rex has been an absolute beast as fourth and Mike Teunissen is a very gifted third man. Thijssen has all the speed you need and Girmay has the confidence to finish it off. The Green Jersey is very close to being secured and from now on, that must be the prime focus. That likely means he isn’t as willing to take risks as some of the others.
Mark Cavendish – If he had to take win number 36, tomorrow would be the day. Very flat and a technical finale is good for Ballerini-Bol-Mørkøv. I think Mark Cavendish will be confident tomorrow, and the rest day comes in perfectly for him. He took a win here in 2013 too.
Jasper Philipsen – It doesn’t click this year. MvdP isn’t as dominant as in 2023 but one should expect him to get better throughout the race. I’ve barely seen Jonas Rickaert and SKA has to some extend done a decent job as fourth, though leaving the remainding three a bit early. They often approach the finale from deep and I think it backfires heavily.
Dylan Groenewegen – He won the easy stage to Dijon. He will hope for another one tomorrow. These are the type of stages that suit him the most, as he only has to do one big effort. I don’t think his sprint train is the best but that didn’t stop him on stage 6. I think he must be one of the favorites.
Arnaud de Lie – always up there but never the kind of stage I think he can win.
Pascal Ackermann – seems to be in great shape but the sprint train is weak compared to the rest.
Fabio Jakobsen – the sprint train have not impressed me. Always being impatient in the finale and leaving Jakobsen on his own. They have to do the sweeper-approach, he is often caught too far back.
Wout van Aert – A top-10 if he decides to sprint.
Bauhaus – I think he will be up there again tomorrow but I highly doubt he can win.
Who will win?
I will take a win for Dylan Groenewegen.