Tour de France 2024 – Stage 6 Preview
Mâcon to Dijon.
Start time 13:50. Turn on the TV with
Mark Cavendish. My earliest memories watching cycling were him as the dominant sprinter in the peloton. I also witnessed his career going to a halt, and now I have witnessed history. Some journey following cycling.
Route
As the sprinters get ready for another sprint, this time in Dijon, I will hopefully have landed in Geneva and be well on my way to the finishing city.
A day heading north. The next big stops is the time trial on Friday followed by the gravel stage on Sunday. This is Burgundy, settled by Burgundians who may have ties to Bornholm in Denmark. It is also a region well-known for their wine
Finale
They are on a big road approaching the city but not big enough to get to the front if you are not.
With 3600m left, we have road furniture. A narrowing is imagined by me. You really want to be sticking to the right side of the road here.
The road bends left as the riders have a downhill, the speeds will be very quick. Then another set of road furniture with 3000m left.
It continues with 2600m left, I can only assume the roadbook or VeloViewer is wrong because it looks mighty dangerous by now. A two lane road then comes to the right hand bend 1800m out. This bend includes some road furniture as well, meaning everything will be single file following this.
The single lane left bend is the next obstacle roughly 1600m out. Then it opens up with 1400m left. Big boulevard, and room for everyone to move up. Expect the old washing-machine effect here.
Another road furniture with 1000m left, you’d want to stay in the right side here as there is a roundabout coming up. It begins with 750m left and ends with 600m left. I still see some road furniture in the run-in, hopefully they have been removed as there are quite a few.
Weather
A windy day in Burgundy. Is this enough for echelons? It is right on the edge of it with 5 m/s blowing from the west.
Furthermore, another cross-headwind sprint.
Echelons?
I don’t see many options in the finale for echelons. There seems to be a large forest which likely the wind a bit there. It means the echelons may happen before the tailwind section you see, if anyone is up for it.
It starts with 85 km left, when they leave Corpeau. This is when the riders have a long crosswind or tailwind section. It then ends as the leave Broin due to the forest likely hindering the full strength of the wind.
After they leave Corpeau, the riders get on a very small road. Winds blowing from the west. The narrows road continues but they pass through a great deal of cities the first time heading east.
The cities are shields. But once they get turn back towards a norther direction, it just opens up again after Lobarde au Chateau with 62 km left. Another 10 km of open, narrow roads.
You get the gist…
It is echelon-friendly tomorrow. I think 5 m/s will be enough on these roads.
How will the stage unfold?
It seems I’m now a firm believer in echelons. It could mean a great deal of riders could lose time. Let us begin with the GC riders. I think it is fair to say Pogacar shouldn’t have many problems here, especially with Wellens and Politt at his side. I do fear for Ayuso and Almeida. Either they are lazier than a sloth or they just can’t position themselves, and both of those options means being in the wrong part of the group when the fun begins. Vingegaard usually knows his way around this too. With Laporte and Wout van Aert, he is well covered. I think the young Carlos Rodriguez could run into problems but usually INEOS Grenadiers knows how to position themselves. They just don’t have many engines to help him. Remco Evenepol has lost an important helper in C. Pedersen for a day like this. I guess Yves Lampaert will come in handy and be worth his weight in gold. Then we have Primoz Roglic. The mountain train doesn’t look as strong as in Dauphine but with Denz, Haller and Van Poppel I think he should be home safe.
Who would like to start this carnage? First team that comes to mind is Visma-LAB. Secondly, it must be Alpecin-Deceuninck. They really need to turn the ship around now, it was a poor performance by both SKA and MvdP today, both not on their 2023 level today. If it hadn’t been for the crash today, LIDL-Trek and Mads Pedersen would have enjoyed a bit of crosswind, they really have the team for it. Other than that, UNO-X and Lotto-DstNy could be teams that do it tomorrow.
Condenders
Jasper Philipsen – I had expected them to dominate this year. Now they are 0/2. Second today was better but Philipsen still has to show he is the quickest in the world (he isn’t, Jonatan Milan is). The team is perfectly suited for tomorrows stage and he will again start as the favorite.
Arnaud de Lie – and third place and a fourth place. He is consistent The Bull. He is going to enjoy the stage tomorrow, simply because it is a tough day on the bike. Another top-5.
Fabio Jakobsen – and seventh place and fifth place. It is more or less what I imagined before the Tour de France. I’d think it will be quite close to that tomorrow. As long as he stays with Degenkolb, he shouldn’t miss the split.
Dylan Groenewegen – it hasn’t been a good start for him and I doubt we will see the team perform extremely well tomorrow. They are split in two. On paper, they should be able to provide the necessary help for him to be right up there. And perhaps they will do even better when the peloton is thinned out.
Alexander Kristoff – he was third today? And had a crash not too far from the finale. I like the Norweigan squad tomorrow. It is just another Norse invasion force. Abrahamsen, Kristoff, Tiller and Wærenskjold are a very strong quartet. I think a top-5 is within reach.
Arnaud Démare – he should enjoy a day with echelons. A top-10.
Gerben Thijssen – One half is going for another stage win, and the other for the green jersey. Sorry lads, you can’t do both. Girmay, Thijssen, Rex and Teunissen should be in the front group tomorrow. I don’t know who sprints but in both cases, a top-10 is most realistic.
Mark Cavendish – Astana were very proactive today. Took the front early and it paid off. Bol, Ballerini, Mørkøv and the Manx Missile. That should be all he needs tomorrow. Mørkøv is still smart, he knows when and where he must be. A top-5.
Mads Pedersen – no fractures. Tomorrow is when the Gods judge how badly he hit the deck. Something tells me he will be right up there fighting for a top result.
Wout van Aert – as he and the team will likely make the split with Vingegaard, he and Laporte could have a go at it.
Who will win?
I’m boring and stubborn. Jasper Philipsen.
