Tour de France 2024 – Stage 5 Preview
Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Saint-Vulbas.
Start time: 13:30.
Turn on your TV at 16:15, just before the Côte de Lhuis.
Karma is a bitch when you underestimate the mythical Col du Galibier, even with a strong headwind. It was the right call by UAE, and sometimes “bad” calls looks good too in hindsight. Tomorrow, the race calms down with a sprint finish.
Route
A flat stage. We have two category 4 climbs but other than that, it is more downhill than uphill tomorrow.
The riders stay in the southern part of France, more specifically Rhône-Alpes. They head north east, finishing not far from Lyon.
Details
First categorized KOM.
Second categorized KOM. It comes with 38.5 km left. Are there going to be any teams willing to try and distance sprinters here?
And here you have the finale. From 5 km out, the riders have just been through a set of road furniture. This is followed by a two-lane road and they get an extra half meter on each side with 4000m left.
Another set of road furniture with 3500m left and on to some completely new tarmac. The first major chokepoint is the roundabout 2900m out. Single lane and teams will be split up. Then the next roundabout with 2400m left will make it very difficult to get back together.
The road opens up to a three lanes 2200m out. Here you can muster your forces and move up. This is canceled by another roundabout 1400m out. Nothing regarding this on the roadbook and which ways you can go. Left side is the quickest.
Then we have to single files with 1300m left. They merge on a two-lane road, as wide as the finish for stage 3. Then with 700m left, it once gets another lane. Anyone boxed in may still have a chance. Then the right hand bend with 300m will squeeze out the extra lane, leaving a finish line with a 7m width. Completely straight last 200m.
Weather
Tour de Headwind. A bit of rain will be a nice welcome to some overheated riders.
Sprint tactics
How do you win tomorrow? With 10.2 km out, the riders change direction into a cross-tailwind from the NW. That means you want to be covered near the left hand side of the road when that corners comes. Then staying near the front and keep left going through the road furniture 5200m out. If you are not at the front by now, you have the short three-lane section coming up with 4000m left.
What then sounds impossible but should be doable as GC teams move out of the way, is getting throught the round furniture on the right hand side with 3500m left. It just makes the distance and positioning for the two roundabouts much better. Once out of the carnage with the road opening up, you need a very strong engine to keep you near the front (Durbridge, SKA, Campenaerts, Rex, Tiller) are some names. It is a headwind section, meaning you can easily burn off your riders quickly.
It is all about staying at the front then, on the left side for optimal distance. If you are a smaller train, you try and stay behind three riders and come through on the other side of the roundabout. As mentioned, the road opens up for 400m (700m – 300m left). The best third man will we worth his weight in gold after the last roundabout. It is about speed and getting into the right hand bend first. As they finish in a forest, I doubt the wind plays a large role. Otherwise, it is the old razzle-dazzle. Let your sprinter come through on the inside, and you block off just beside him. Anyone going after him will think twice about it, and anyone going around needs to get wind on their nose too, meaning you don’t benefit as much from drafting.
You need a very long sprint train tomorrow. Then you can play it safer and getting near the front for a longer time. If you have a short sprint train, the best thing is to stay 3-4 rides together and move up before the roundabout 1200m out. Then the chance comes with 700m left and perhaps there is a gap.
Contenders
Philipsen – he didn’t have MvdP in the first sprint. He punctured. Did it cost him positioning and the reason why he crashed? No, the teams 4th/5th must have gambled and hoped for a late surge. They were down to four riders near the front with 4200m left, and they jumped on the UNO-X train and they were later caught 2400m out on the left side and they hadn’t taken the front. Simply not good enough. He crashed too, will he be fit to fight?
Groenewegen – he was well-placed before the last two corners, he just lost 10 positions after them. Then he just ran out of space on the right hand side of the road. De Lie and Girmay shut the door and he wasn’t too happy about it. I still think he can win another Tour de France stage.
Pedersen – LIDL-Trek looked very good near the front in the finale. Gibbons was missing from the front, not certain what happened to him that stage. He lost the wheel of Stuyven in the last two corners, so there was a few things going wrong for them. I think Stuyven-Gibbons-Pedersen as a cohesive unit will get another top-5 tomorrow. Stuyven looked very, very good.
De Lie – Lotto-Dstny found their way with 3600m left, going up and Cedric Beullens was very good positioned in the last 500m before his job was done. De Lie was too far back, another rider losing many positions in the corners. De Lie was all over the place in the sprint, first being overtaken by Gaviria on his right, then Girmay on his left. Then a small puff to Groenewegen near the barriers. Had he gone on the right hand side of Stuyven, he would have won the stage. A top-3.
Girmay – I like the sprint train a lot which is easy to say in hindsight. I was wrong. I didn’t think he or Thijssen would be quick enough to win a pure sprint here. Rex-Teunissen-Thijssen-Girmay. Power and speed. Rex is worth his weight in gold these stages and the controlled the run in. I don’t know who they are going for, but both of them can on their best days get a top-5.
Jakobsen – did a good job getting to the front with 5000m left. They ended up with three riders 1500m out, that is too long for that. He was positioned well but in the chaos of the all he was boxed in.
Bauhaus – he will continue to be consistent. A top-10 specialist.
Gaviria – he came late and alone after the last two corners. Still second place and start his sprint from a fantastic position. Another top-10.
Who will win?
I will still take a win for Jasper Phillipsen. He and MvdP are superior together.
