Tour de France 2024 – Stage 4 Preview
A hectic sprint. Crashes by Jasper Philipsen, Bruno Armirail, Casper Pedersen, Stephen Williams and a furious Cofidis rider. I’m still missing five riders who crashed.
Tomorrow, we head for the mountains.
Route
A day where it goes up or down for most of the stage. Sestrières is the first climb, and it is soon followed by Col de Montgenèvre. There is then an easier section until Col du Galibier begins. From it’s top, it is almost downhill all the way to the line.
Tomorrow the riders continue their journey east, crossing the border on the second climb of the day.
The climbs
First up is Sestrières. This is likely where the first breakaway attempts happen.
Secondly, we have the Col de Montgenèvre. Ultimately, this can be the spot where the breakaway forms. The first half in particular is steep.
Col du Galibier is the last test. Last used in 2019 from this side. It was a breakaway win back in 2019, with Nairo Quintana winning the stage. We get up to 2600 meters above sea level, the air is thinner than a thread up here. It gets tough in the last 7 kilometers.
The first part of the descent is extremely tricky. Once they cross into Savoie, there does not seem to be a straight road for 8 kilometers. It is a decent spot to attack, but you will be going down quicker in a group on the easier part. Roughly three corners per kilometers going down here.
Then it gets much easier. They will fly down the last 11 kilometers, with the first 10 of them being downhill. -5% is not a lot, meaning they will have to push the pedals as well.
And then for the sprint in Valloire (which looks like a stunning city), we have a corner with 800m to go. They then make their way uphill, until the last turn of the day. This right hand turn comes with 200m left, and here the riders finish on flat terrain.
Weather
As the gradients are not very steep tomorrow, the wind does play a role. You’ll benefit a lot just be staying on the wheel. The temperature is cooler, due to higher altitude and there is a tailwind first half with a headwind on Col du Galibier. The wind changes as they go through the mountains, and I really doubt we will see a large GC fight. It will just be a waste of energy. A day for the breakaway!
How will the stage unfold?
I think many teams will look at the win for Col du Galibier and think: “We can’t work with that”. And it just isn’t the hardest climb in the world, and that is why we had so small gaps in 2019.
I think EF will be very keen to holding on to the jersey, and they do have a strong squad to make sure nobody is going to borrow it. That means it can take some time for the breakaway to form. I think the best place you should aim for it as a climber, is the second part of Sestrières (6.6 km at 6.1%), the descent just after or on Secondly, we have the Col de Montgenèvre. Ultimately, this can be the spot where the breakaway forms. The first half in particular is steep as I mentioned. It is difficult to be precise, due to a tunnel always cocking up the GPX. It looks like 4.9 km above 8%.
Then the headwind will make many riders fear attacking to early. Once the altitude meters start to rise, riders automatically drops. Then the last part, the steep part (from 2000m -> 2600m above sea level) the wind looks more favorable for an attacker.
You also have to add in the descent. Being a rouleur or a diesel (they often way just a wee bit more than the pure climbers), will simply go faster downhill. So we could see two riders or more behind the man in front working together and gaining a lot of time on the last part downhill, simply due to gravity and aerodynamics.
Contenders
EF is holding on the that jersey. I think that means everyone in top-45 (6:11 behind) are not allowed. I think they will be over-cautious. That means from position 46th and downward (8:36 or more) is what they will allow. Otherwise, they would need to send N. Powless or Rui Costa up the road, in order to keep the jersey within the fold.
Tobias Halland Johannesen – It hasn’t been the best of seasons. First he gave away the win in Classic Var. Secondly a broken collarbone two days later in Tour des Alpes-Maritimes. He has bounced back with fine placements in Tour of Slovenia which brings my hopes up. He was the strongest from the breakaway on stage 7 here in 2023, and did well on Col de la Loze on stage 17 too. So when he is in top-shape, he is a very gifted rider. The question is, is he at his best again?
Cristian Rodriguez – he climbed well the other day, and more importantly he knew how to play the role when Vauquelin attacked. The Spanish rider from Arkéa – B&B Hotels has not climbed as well in 2024 and he did in 2023. More notably, he only has two professional wins in his career. When looking at his performances uphill, he still looks like a rider who could get very far in a breakaway despite very few wins.
Marc Soler – Obviously, it is not for certain he is allowed up the road. If he is, the diesel-terrain and his descent is what makes him a fine candidate for tomorrows stage. If he wants to join the breakaway, he is in it. I’m not certain how well he performs at 2600m above sea level, but he was 12th on Sierra Nevada in 2022 and rode with Pogacar on Col de la Loze. He lives in Andorra, which is also a good sign for tomorrow.
Alexey Lutsenko – 3rd here in 2019. Or on the climb and descent. It was after Quintana and Bardet, very strong climbers back in 2019. He has been inconsistent this year, an illness in Giro d’Italia certainly did not help. He has another good results from back in 2022 on Col du Granon (high altitude) to help me believe he can get a fine result from the breakaway.
Wout Poels – feels odd to mention a Dutch when we talk high altitude climbing. I just remember him being extremely strong on the Andorra stage back in 2021, which makes me believe it isn’t a big problem for him. He sits with Bilbao and Buitrago high in the GC. I can’t seem to find out why Poels sits so far back in the GC, I do wonder if the heat has played a role.
Oier Lazkano – an uncut gem. Where are his limits? He climbed fantastically in Dauphiné, far surpassing any expectations I had for him. He is a good enough climber to win on a stage like tomorrow. How does he handle altitude? There are no data to say yay or nay. Alto Colorado (San Juan 2023) he was 11th but he is a very different rider 18 months later. Plus, he may be on team duty.
Tadej Pogacar – he will be the favorite in the sprint, if we see one. High altitude and Pogacar and not two things that often go well together, but he did win on Mottolino on their way to Livigno in 2024. It is sometimes what cracks him. Overall, the stage it too easy for him to get in trouble.
Jonas Vingegaard – a longer test than San Luca. I doubt he will be in any problems.
Richard Carapaz – high altitude. Carapaz should thrive tomorrow.
Primoz Roglic – bad positioning will be my verdict. It was a record time by a landslide after all. I doubt we will see any weaknesses tomorrow.
Who will win?
I’ll throw my hat in for the breakaway. With many riders maybe locked to their leader (Poels, Lazkano, Soler) I think the best rider left is Tobias Halland Johannesen. I think UNO-X can succeed getting him up the road. And what better time to turn the season around than with a stage win at the Tour de France?
