Tour de France 2024 – Stage 3 Preview
Plaisance – Turin.
1st of July 2024.
Start time 11:35. Turn on the TV 16:30.
A breakaway day it was. Had it not been the second stage, it would have been the obvious call. The group that sailed away was too big and once more, UAE didn’t do what I thought they would. That is going to be a reoccurring theme the next three weeks. Tomorrow is for the sprinters.
Route
A long day. 230 kilometers and less than 1000 climbing meters. Since it will be the first sprint, a lot of teams should be willing to do their part to ensure a day for the fast men.
The riders head west, they have to be in France in the near future.
Finale
The GPX file for this is all over the place. It is one long straight. Then a corner with 1250m left followed by the last corner 900m out. These two corners will stretch the peloton out. You still have time to come back, the difficult part will be finding your teammates. The last straight has a width of 7m, and the last little bend (you can’t see it below) comes with 500m left.
Weather
Not a lot of wind and it is below 30 degrees C tomorrow afternoon. You can barely see it but the finale 700m are with a headwind. It requires a great deal of timing to succeed tomorrow.
Wind blowing from the south. Not very strong but it still plays a small role.
How will the stage unfold?
It should be a transportation stage. TV breakaway gets up the road and the teams behind send their workhorse to the front. I just have a small feeling that a few teams are feeling very optimistic in the breakaway after the last two stages.
However, with Alpecin-Deceuninck, Lotto-DstNy, Jayco-AlUla, Lidl-Trek, DSM-firmenich and Astana, I think we will have plenty of teams killing their chances. The battle to get up the road may be long but the teams will keep chasing until they are satisfied with the group up ahead.
Contenders
Philipsen – he should still start as the favorite for all the flat stages. The reason is simple, he has the best lead-out man in the world at his disposal. You add in SKA and Rickaert and it adds up why he took four stage wins last year. What I find most impressive is that his worst placement in a sprint in the Tour de France 2024 was 4th in eight sprints.
De Lie – I’ve seen The Bull of Lescheret destroy tyres, chains and pedals when he is sprinting. He is a monster that recently won the Belgian Nationals beating Phillipsen, Merlier and Van Aert. He hasn’t got the best lead-out and his wins rarely comes at the highest level. Despite this, I’d think he can finish in the top-3.
Groenewegen – he still has something left in him. He is another rider who just won the nationals very confidently, and very few people beat Olav Kooij confidently. It is an easy stage, which is something that is good for him. I’m not sure how Matthews, Mezgec and Reinders play together, the last of them have yet to impress me. Still, I’d imagine a top-5 is what he can get.
Kristoff – he likely won’t win. The stage is too easy, but with their team he should definitely get a top-10. His biggest issue will be not stating his sprint 300m out in the headwind. Wærenskjold, Tiller and Abrahamsen are one of the most powerful lead outs here.
Bauhaus – they come with a half-n-half squad. Arndt, Mohoric and Wright to guide him isn’t bad at all but I think it is more plausible to see him finish around top-5. He is usually very consistent.
Pedersen – not his favorite type of sprint. He is usually very consistent too, and with Gibbons and Stuyven, I think he is very good care. A top-5.
Cavendish – he lost a lot of time and climbed poorly in the first stages too in 2023. He then got 6th, 5th and 2nd in the sprints just after. With Mørkøv and Bol, they have experience and power. He has struggled with the heat, puking on the bike too. Hopefully in these early days, he can still challenge for history.
Wout van Aert – I’ve likely missed a report or an interview regarding if he sprints or not. He looks better than expected, and they have Christophe Laporte as a lead-out. That is likely enough for a top-5.
Who will win?
Jasper Philipsen.
