Tour de France 2024 – Stage 2 Preview
June 30th 2024. Cesenatico to Bologna.
Start 12:25. Turn on the TV 15:52, when they reach Côte de Botteghino di Zocca.
We had a wonderful first stage. The best stories always comes from an underdog. What is impressive is the masterpiece behind the idea, it was clear that none was willing to set up a tough pace. UAE did so to do absolutely nothing with it. Tomorrow, they head for the San Luca.
Route
An easier day on paper but in terms of where the climbing is positioned, we could see a few GC men wanting to attack. The breakaway will form on the flat, that is what I sense will be the theme early on. As they move northeast towards Bologna in the Emilia-Romagna region, they eventually reach Bologna.
Finale
It starts off when you need to turn on the stage. Côte de Botteghino di Zocca is the beginning of yet another long finale. Here the battle for positioning will begin and hence the tempo rise.
Côte de Monteclavo is the next climb. The first of three steep ramps. From the top, the riders have 50 km left.
Then it is the laps in Bologna. It isn’t the same as in Giro dell’Emilia but the climb and descent is the same.
The first lap begins with 36.8 km left.
Many of us now the Giro dell’Emilia climb. Usually, they don’t take a trip through Bologna in the one day race, they go straight back up the climb. Five times. This is just twice with a flat section to get your pulse down.
First ascent with 33 km left. Second ascent with 14.7 km left
From the top, they do a descent with a short climb in between. In more or less means the chasing can happen with 6 km left but they will need to get organized first.
Weather
Another warm day with a headwind for most of the stage. Is it enough for echelons? Rarely in this part of the world. However, I would still take caution near the sprint that happens just after they leave Imola. There are some open sectors but they are short and the wind doesn’t look strong enough.
It should be a head-crosswind on San Luca but a tailwind home. Weather data: Meteo-France.
How will the stage unfold?
We had a tough race today. Expectedly, most sprinters hard a tough day on the bike. And most of them will not survive tomorrow either. There is one team who decides how big the selection will be, and they are not the easiest team to understand…
UAE Team Emirates is that team. They were willing to sacrifice Politt, Soler and Wellens. They will have to do more tomorrow if they want a selection. It means smashing it up the first time on San Luca, just enough to get riders out the back door but still have a rider to pace the descent, the flat section and lead them into the last climb. From there, the bonus seconds are something they are after. That means setting it up With Ayuso, Almeida and lastly A. Yates. Pogacar will then attack.
Then we are down to, who can follow him? We still have so many unanswered questions. Most of them will not be answered on a 5:30 minute climb. Still, we should see gaps. Who is willing to work with Tadej Pogacar and who can follow him? Not a lot.
The stage reminds me a great deal of stage 1 in 2023 with the distance from San Luca being a bit longer and the stage tomorrow in general is much easier. Therefore, a great climber with a great sprint likely wins.
Contenders
Pogacar – He will likely start as the bookmakers favorite once more. I found it very odd to see him being that price but in the end, he was the second fastest rider in the bunch sprint. He also looked like a rider who could have completed the stage with one leg. He looks fresh. He will attack and he will hope for cooperation, I just doubt he will get any. Is he willing to bring someone to the line and take the sprint against them? I think he is this year.
Vingegaard – first test. A five minute climb. It isn’t his cup of tea. He looked calm and collected today, nothing nervous about him. He has missed some training, could it have been the short intervals he was so good at in 2023? I have no clue. If an elite group breaks free and makes it to the line, he should be in it.
Evenepoel – it is a good stage for him. He usually shines in the Ardennes Classics and he often does a good job on Alto do Malhao, a climb fairly similar to San Luca. He is playing himself down but 7th in Dauphiné was fine. I don’t want to shame any bodies, but he looks more slim than in the Dauphiné. It makes sense, as he likely spent a lot of time in the gym gaining muscle elsewhere than the legs. He packs a good sprint, which makes him a fine candidate.
Roglic – he is fantastic on these slopes and he has fond memories of the climb. I just think his sprint on the flat is somewhat underwhelming compared to his killer instinct when the road rises to the line. His timing is perfect and has brought him so many victories through the years. I’d still imagine him to contest for a top-5.
Tom Pidcock – says he fancies this stage. He is climbing better this year. He is more consistent too. He knows how to sprint from an elite group, having beaten some fast men in Amstel Gold Race earlier this year. If I use Alto de Malhao again as a reference point, you can see he does well there. I think he will be right up there tomorrow fighting for the stage win.
Van Gils – I reckon he will be up there again tomorrow. Such a fine rider, who is often very consistent. Top results in the Ardennes and in the two French Faun-Classics means he can handle a steep incline or two. He was 5th in the sprint today, a result he can be very pleased with. I’d imagine something similar tomorrow.
Wout van Aert – We were 100m away from a free pint from the legend himself. He likely isn’t 100% but sometimes Wout van Aert on 95% is more than enough to challenge for stage wins. San Luca is a steep climb, and I doubt he will be in the front group the second time they cross the top. But there is a change it can come back together, and that is a likely scenario. He still has a small chance of wearing yellow before the Alps.
Mathieu van der Poel – as expected, not in the frame today at all. Tomorrow is a better chance for him. Like his biggest rival, Wout van Aert, he has to hope it comes back together as I think San Luca is too much to ask for. The effort is simply a bit too long.
Alberto Bettiol – I think he will do well tomorrow. He is quick and he is climbing extremely well this season. A top-10.
Romain Bardet – the team has a decent squad for the stage tomorrow. Degenkolb is a fantastic road captain, Onley, van den Broeck and Barguil to in some way help on San Luca.
Ben Healy – he is cunning enough to attack just at the right time.
Who will win?
I think Pogacar attacks but will still have a few riders near him after the top. It means they should be able to keep Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel from rejoining. A sprint of 10-15.
Therefore, Tadej Pogacar to take the stage.
