Tour de France 2024 – Stage 1 Preview

The riders start the race in Italy. From Florence, they make their way east towards the Adriatic Sea. The journey there is lumpy with 3400 climbing meters. On paper, it is a harder opening stage than in 2023 but there isn’t a decisive point in the finale.

Route

We could see a strong breakaway form on Col de Valico Tre Faggi. On an opening stage like this, a few teams could send a rider up the road and thereby not control the stage.

Heading east and even going through San Marino. I doubt I’ve seen that in a Grand Tour before.

Inside the last 76.5 km.

Here the climbs come with shorter intevals. They kick off with Barbotto as the fourth climb left of the stage.

Up next is the San Leo. It begins with 54 kilometers left of the stage.

The penultimate climb is the Montemaggio. Not the steepest climb in the world and very steady. It begins with 43.5 km left. It is still a long way out.

The last climb of the day begins with 33.5 km left and ends with 27 km left. It isn’t the hardest climb in the world.

The run for home

26.5 km left. The first ten are downhill, then the last fourteen are flat.

Fairly tricky inside Rimini. Three roundabouts brings them to the 2 km mark. Then there are three corners before the finale straight begins with 800m left.

Weather

Extremely hot in Italy. A headwind, mostly, throughout the finale. That should result in more riders surviving the climbs and riding for the sprint.

Contenders

Wout van Aert – I can’t tell how well he is going. He wasn’t too impressive in Tour of Norway but that is a month ago. I think Wout van Aert left the Tour de France a bitter man in 2023, I think the team is willing to give their all for him to take the stage win and the yellow jersey tomorrow.

Tadej Pogacar – UAE are the team who decide things this time around. A fierce pace to drop everyone and set it up for Pogacar? They will need to do it a long way out, and I don’t think they will. Still, Pogacar could steal stage and jersey tomorrow.

Tom Pidcock – the type of stage that suits him. He has become a better climber and a more consistent climber. What I do fear is that it can have costed him a bit of top-speed. A top-5.

Romain Gregoire – these stages suit him perfectly. I think he is good enough and quick enough for a top-10 and possibly more.

Axel Laurance – I think he has the best chance for Alpecin tomorrow. A top-10 tomorrow seems very doable.

Alberto Bettiol – His best season so far. Everything is going right this year. I doubt he can outsprint a few names here but he will do his best to get a top-10.

Maxim Van Gils – I honestly can’t rate his sprint just yet. I haven’t watched him enough. I’ve seen him outsprint a strong field in Switzerland and lose a sprint to McNulty. I think a top-10.

Alex Aranburu – I’ve never seen him in this shape. I think he will be knocking on the door for a top-5.

Magnus Cort – He will need to be on his best climbing legs to survive tomorrow. I think the headwind is just what tips the favor towards him surviving.

Who will win stage 1?

Despite form and preparation, I have never seen a better looking stage for Wout van Aert

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