Tour de France 2024 – GC Preview
This is the biggest race of the season. No other race gets this much attention or people talking. The ordinary person turn on their TV and enjoy the sound of summer – the sound of the Tour de France. It is no different this year, a lineup filled with stars. You know me, I only see two favorites and then a whole bunch of outsiders hoping to get on the podium with Pogacar and Vingegaard in Paris. Will this year be any different?
Stage 1
From Florence to Rimini. More than 3300 climbing meters, I think Veloviewer is closer to 3600 climbing meters. A tough day but we rarely see double-digits in the past 70 kilometers. It should be a reduced bunch sprint but I do wonder, who is going to take take control? It will be the first sign of responsibility. The first day is always hectic, which is why I think the pace will be high and we likely see a crash or two.
Stage 2
Côte de San Luca. That just sounds wrong. San Luca sounds better. The riders have 16 km of recovery in between and I doubt anyone will attack the first way up. Bonus seconds on the second ascent will get the riders moving. The last 6200m are flat, a strong group (working together that is) could stay away. It is one of the GC men and the strongest puncheurs.
Stage 3
First sprint. Last corner is 800m out but it will still give us an idea of which teams are organized and have a well-run sprint train.
Stage 4
3700 climbing meters. Col du Galibier is 2633m above sea level and there is bonus seconds on the top. This is a real test and I think we will see the best GC men sprinting for the bonus seconds once more. The first part of the descent is tricky, the last part is very easy and suits a group. The last 800m are 2.3%. In all honesty, I doubt we will see large GC gaps but the thin air can surprise and play a role. It could also be a day for the breakaway.
Stage 5
The second sprint. A it more technical and it comes down to timing getting in the last bend near the very front.
Stage 6
Another sprint stage, finishing in Dijon. A large roundabout with 750m out will stretch the group and then it is just down to speed from there.
Stage 7 (ITT)
Look out for a pale Dane on the climb. We should see the typical GC gaps, I don’t expect many surprises.
Stage 8
A hilly day but nothing the sprinters these days can’t handle. A 4% sprint in Colombey-Les-Deux-Églises is a gritty sprint. I will be posted near the Côte de Vitteaux.
Stage 9
It is very difficult to say the role of this stage. I think it will be less important compared to the cobblestone stages we’ve seen in the past. It will be very hectic with many teams wanting to ride at the front and that often creates crashes. A few teams here have not brought a GC rider and they want to hunt the stage win, the easiest thing would be from the breakaway.
Stage 10
A fourth sprint. Very tricky inside La Flamme Rouge.
Stage 11
Your typical breakaway stage. Long and tough to control. We could see GC action inside the last 46 kilometers, Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol is a nasty wall with 2000m above 12%. I just don’t think there will be a race defining move here, as teams will have plenty of helpers left to help chase down moves.
Stage 12
It should be a fifth sprint. A boulevard sprint.
Stage 13
A sixth sprint. I think you can drop a few of them on the categorized climbs.
Stage 14
Now we are back in the mountains. Col du Tourmalet has been the lunchpad for Visma-LAB in the past. It is the stage you want a teammate out front for Hourquette d’Ancizan. The Pla d’Adet isn’t the most difficult climb in the world as it is only the first 6.8 km that are difficult but it is possible to attack and distance your rivals. I hope we see fireworks on Tourmalet, otherwise it could become a bummer.
Stage 15
I love everything about the stage. We will have a very strong breakaway formed on the first three climbs, and then a heck of a GC fight on Plateau de Beille. It is the toughest day so far, especially since it comes late in week 2. The stage is tough, but we don’t have much consecutive climbing in the finale. I doubt we will see as large gaps as some people think.
Stage 16
Last week. A seventh sprint and one filled with roundabouts.
Stage 17
A breakaway stage.
Stage 18
This late in a Grand Tour, these stages are a coinflip between the breakaway and the sprinters who have not yet won. Close to 3000 climbing meters, it will be tough for most sprinters to stay in the bunch. I’ll throw my hat in for the breakaway, if the Sprinters Classification is not too close. Teams have lost valuable horsepower by now, controlling it will be almost impossible.
Stage 19
Christ on a bike. 4300 climbing meters and some really long efforts. Cime de la Bonette gets up to 2793m above sea level. Mythical terrain. I think this is one of the most important GC days.
Stage 20
It brings the heat too. Another mountain marathon day. Long efforts but once more, the gradients doesn’t get super steep. It is a trend this edition, it suits the diesels.
Stage 21 (ITT)
A long and important time trial in Nice. 34 kilometers with plenty of climbing meters. Bike change or not? Let’s see if any teams have learned from last year. Many of the riders will know the terrain from Paris-Nice.
Noteworthy GC stages.
I think we have a few important ones. In week 2 we have stage 14 and stage 15. In week 3 we have stage 19, stage 20 and stage 21. I think compared to 2023 and 2022, the mountain stages are not as difficult as previous years. If we compare the PCS profilescore, you can see the numbers don’t lie.
2022 (four toughest mountain stages) 408 (S18), 400 (S11), 389 (S12) & 324 (S17).
2023 (four toughest mountain stages) 445 (S17), 335 (S15), 310 (S6), 308 (S14).
2024 (four toughest mountain stages) 366 (S15), 340 (S14), 313 (S20), 275 (S19).
The second week is the most difficult. That doesn’t mean you can’t drop it all in the last three stages. But overall, the mountain stages doesn’t look very frightening. That means two things. One, the time trials are more important. Two, so are bonus seconds.
Contenders
Jonas Vingegaard – punctured lung, fractured ribs and collarbone back in April. For many, it seems to have been a race against time even getting him to the start line. I think the Dane has underplayed himself, and he is lucky the first test comes on stage 14. It gives him time to race into form. There is a reason he starts in Saturday, he thinks he can win. And I need to remind a few people he has won with 2:43 in 2022 and 7:29 in 2023. He is the best Grand Tour rider in the world, by a landslide. I think many will write him off, and I do think he will behind heading in to stage 14 but this is when we reach the terrain he thrives in.
Tadej Pogacar – Giro – Tour double is always exciting. We’ve seen a few try and as of late, it has been Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin. They both managed to do well. Pogacar is different and he rarely has an off-day. When you go back and look at why he lost in 2022, here is why: stage 11 and stage 18. Two days above 400 profilescore. In 2023, here is why: stage 17, by far the toughest stage in 2023. On paper, this Tour de France does not get as tough. He will get plenty of bonus seconds, that is for certain too. Rightfully, he starts as the favorite.
Primoz Roglic – I know a group of people who say he is winning. I know more giving him a bad time. For a while now, I’ve been confident in putting him behind Tadej and Jonas, I simply can’t see him beating them. He simply wasn’t dominating enough in Dauphine. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t get better as time goes by and there is a reason why he has finished on the podium in his past seven Grand Tours (that he has completed). A top-5, with a strong possibility for a top-3
Carlos Rodriguez – let’s see if INEOS are smart enough to get behind the correct rider this year. When you look at his results in 2024, you can see he needs some time to get the legs going and that means this edition looks good for him. The issue is that he seems to fade in the third week, he did so in La Vuelta 2022 and Le Tour 2023. Still, I would be very surprised not to see him safely inside the top-10.
Remco Evenepoel – I will likely piss off a few people, but let’s go. He won’t win. He hopes to get better as the race progresses, I think that is a fair move. With a bit of luck, he will be in a very good position heading into stage 14, when the Tour de France begins. What are his weaknesses? Usually the mountain marathons (stage 13, La Vuelta 2023). It was an easy La Vuelta he took in 2022 with only one day above 400 PCS (Sierra Nevada). Still, he can time trial and sprint. I think he hopes for a top-3. I think he is a safe card for top-15, he should develop as the race goes on.
Simon Yates – a strong top-5 candidate, who sometimes struggles with the weather. Fourth last year was due to a smart tactic sending him in the breakaway, I doubt we can see him get a better result this year. A top-10.
Richard Carapaz – I have a weak spot for him this year. He crashed in Tour de Suisse and hit his chin. He had a terrible 2023 and this year he hasn’t impressed much. Still, he was the best of the rest back in 2022 and he is mighty pissed about not being selected for Olympics. Either he will contest for a top-5 or he will win a whole lot of breakaway stages.
Enric Mas – started off slowly but he has found his rhythm. He will as usual struggle against the clock but his best results always comes in the last week. A top-10.
Adam Yates – first lieutenant UAE. On the podium last year, still he lost by ten minutes. I would use him more wisely, you need to try and do a two-pronged attack on Jonas Vingegaard. Clearly he was a decoy. Don’t use him for setting a pace, use him for attacking. A top-5.
Joao Almeida – I often give him shit. He won’t win but he certainly climbed well in Tour de Suisse and the gradients this edition (not very steep) suits his diesel engine well. A top-10.
Who will win?
Looking at the route this year, it is not as difficult as the past years. Vingegaard doesn’t have the same terrain to shine. Still, nothing is decided until stage 14, this is when the Tour de France begins.
Five stages decide it. Stage 14, stage 15, stage 19, stage 20 and stage 21.
I think Tadej Pogacar wins. The course suits him this edition and Visma-LAB doesn’t have their secret Eagle from Durango to tear his team a part this edition.
