Tour de Suisse 2024 – Stage 4
Thibau Nys. Winning on a more difficult stage than the previous after feeling unwell. It just tells you how quickly things can change in this sport. Tomorrow, the first of five mountain top finishes (including the time trial) begin.
Route
A flat stage with a tough mountain top finish. Schöllenen and Gotthardpass, where Gino Mäder took a stage win a few years back. I think I’ll show you them combined, it short plateau is part of the climb.
A day heading south.
Schöllenen and Gotthardpass
A very long effort. The gradients are not the toughest. First segment 4.5 km at 7.8%. Second segment 9.7 km at 6.8%. It has a small plateau too in the second segment. There are some steep sectors, the first being with 5.1 km left to 3.9 km left. 1200m at 9.7%. Then again from 2.2 km left to 1 km left. Another 1200m at 8.9%. From here, it is more or less flat.
Weather
The tailwind plays a large role tomorrow. It makes it easier to set up an attack as you won’t gain as much draft on the flatter sections. It stays dry but do note, it is below 10 degrees C at the top.
How will the stage unfold?
It is fantastic to see a race not dominated by a single rider or a single team. I think that slightly chances tomorrow, as the terrain changes with it. It has been semi-classics the past few days but tomorrow, it is only the climbers who can win. I think one team stands clear, and that is UAE Team Emirates.
How do they want to play it? The roles are clear for the upcoming Tour de France. Adam Yates is their top man. He was riding near the front today and looking mighty sharp. They will have few teams that can match them but most top GC riders should be able to hold their ground, as the plateau is a lovely sight for riders afraid of the wind.
I think it will be them and AG2R (imagine saying that 12 months ago) that will pull the strings. Gall lost 25 seconds today but I’m confident tomorrow is a different story. He absolutely hates descends and the fierce battle for positioning in the peloton. I expect a strong presence from INEOS, FDJ and EF who have some of the best climbers here.
Contenders
A. Yates – I was positively surprised today. Seeing him near the front, doing work for Hirschi’s attack. Still, he finished 7th, as the best UAE rider. It is their team in a nutshell, but I guess the pay is good. He should be the best climber here and he does have a fine kick in him if it comes down to a sprint.
F. Gall – I expect a top result. As they are not going downhill at all, his chances increase by roughly 13%. This is a mini Col de la Loze, and as he is a pure climber, he is going to thrive in it. I just don’t think the climbers will be that far a part tomorrow.
R. Carapaz – he has a good kick to him and he is good on longer climbs. If we see a GC sprint, I think he will do quite well. Plus, as I have him as the overall favorite to win, I think he will be very tough to distance.
M. Skjelmose – he will hope it gets down to a GC showdown at the top. It is a good thing for him it does, as he is the quickest of the GC favorites in a flat sprint. I think the simplicity of the stage is good for him, he goes well on a single-mountain stage.
L. Martinez – the finale is not made for a pure climber. He has a better chance at stage 5 if you ask me. A safe top-10 option.
E. Bernal – I can’t see him getting much better than 5th.
Pidcock – we don’t have to look further back than Tirreno-Adriatico to see him climbing very well. He beats anyone in a sprint from a reduced GC group.
Almeida – UAE Attacker #1. We all know he rides his own chance.
VPP – AG2R Attacker #1. He seems to be one of the few carrying the Giro d’Italia form still.
Who will win?
A sole winner or a GC sprint. A flat sprint so to speak. Mattias Skjelmose has the best kick.
