Tour de Suisse 2024 – Stage 3
It was a great finale in terms of excitement. In terms of safety, it wasn’t very enjoyable to watch. I saw Valter and Quintana crash with a few others, they quickly got back on their bike. Then Buchmann, Voissard and E. Hayter hit the deck too later. Tomorrow is of similar difficulty, I would actually argue a bit tougher. A few teams need to rethink their approach if they want a better result.
Route
Overall, the stage has fewer climbing meters. As you can see, they are just much more concentrated towards the last third of the stage. Plus a difference is of course the uphill sprint, it suits the puncheurs more.
The riders stay in the region of Zurich.
Finale
It starts 37 km from the line. Oberwil – Lieli and the Tissot KMs just after. I guess they will be won by the breakaway once more, the GC teams know the harsh terrain waiting this week. With roughly 18.5 km left, Aeugst am Albis followed by Albispass make for excellent climbs to attack, as there is a long descent until 4 km left. Here they have the first of two hills.
I think it is too early to attack on Oberwil – Lieli. It will be ridden with a hard tempo but the selection happens on Aeugst am Albis and Albispass.
2.6km at 7% followed by 1.8km at 6%. From the top, there are just 10.5 km left.
The descent is tricky in the first 2.5 km. It gets much easier with 8 km to go, and here the peloton can start to gain seconds on the breakaway (if they work well together that is). With plenty of roundabouts and road furniture as always, it just makes it a bit more difficult to chase. Plus we saw today how late they had to leave it Lotto-Dstny.
If you ask me, after the descent it reminds me of a Criterium race or a national championship. Never a moment of just going in a straight line on a flat road. Here you have the last 5000 meters.
First up is the Kilchsbergstrasse.
Then the run-in to the line. It flattens out with 200m left but it suits the puncheurs.
Weather
Another day where the wind does not play a role. Once more, I have mixed weather reports coming in, most of them says it stays dry so that is what we will go with.
How will the stage unfold?
We saw a few attacks today and perhaps they could have made it to the line had they coordinated their moves a bit more. It was too difficult for M. van den Berg, it should open up a chance for Bettiol or Costa again. And with so few teams wanting to take on the job as attack-hunters, I think a few teams will look at their chances differently tomorrow. It will be too difficult for Meeus (Adria, Higuita), Demare (Vauquelin) and Ackermann (Williams) once more, and it opens up chances for their riders too. Ethan Hayter is stubborn as a donkey and hit the deck today, perhaps it is just wiser to go for Pidcock tomorrow.
We saw UAE Team Emirates being invisible. I doubt they will be that again tomorrow. They have excellent riders for this terrain, including the likes of Hirschi, Del Toro, Fisher-Black and Christen. Multiple options and none of them followed any moves today. They also have the option to simply control it with an iron fist, setting up a sprint for Almeida, who is their best placed GC man.
LIDL-Trek also felt overrun in the finale, it wasn’t theirs to control anyway. Their new Belgian hope, Thibau Nys, didn’t have a very good day but the others finished with Skjelmose. Nys crashed in Grosser Preis des Kantons Aargau.
It is a difficult stage to predict, I think I could come up with 30 names. I’ll give you my best ten. The attackers not mentioned are Bettiol, SKA and any UAE rider.
Contenders
Almeida (‘7) – I don’t know what their plan is. It seems they sometimes don’t come up with any. They have the option to set up a potential stage win for Almeida, he has a good kick to him. Otherwise, they will send riders up the road in order to give him a free ride. I think that is most likely, it is what I would do.
Matthews (‘7) – he must be happy with his result today, he came poorly out of the last corner and De Lie’s chain dropped off. He can win the stage tomorrow, I think he also stands a good chance of getting in the leader’s jersey as I doubt Lampaert or Hayter can make it to the line. It means sacrificing Mauro Schmids chances but it is a risk worth taking. I also think it was impressive the way he took 10 positions inside the last 500 meters. He is flying.
Skjelmose (’11) – we know he has an impressive sprint to him, the last time it gave him a stage win was in Paris-Nice, beating McNulty and Jorgensen. The team looked composed today, I think they fell a little far back on the last climb when SKA decided to go all out. It can be difficult staying together as a team on a finale like this but a strong sign was finishing 6 riders in the front group.
Vauquelin (’13) – if you are a hipster like me, you will know how good he can be in February in France. This year, a 3rd place in an uphill sprint in Tirreno-Adriatico is his last showing of his finish. He was second this year in Fleche Wallone, he does not mind an uphill sprint.
Pidcock (’17) – It should be days like this where he should win. He is better in an uphill sprint than in a flat one. He too has the option to attack of follow attacks, good look catching him in a finale like this. The issue is, he doesn’t win enough. He is very consistent and on his best days, one of the best in this terrain. Something just tells me the goal is Olympics, which means he isn’t 100% just now.
Williams (’17) – he has taken some wins this year uphill. In Santos Tour Down Under he beat some very fast names. In Catalunya contesting some uphill sprints too. And of course La Fleche Wallone, on much steeper terrain bear in mind. I think the main issue will be the team support, but he should have G. Bennett until the very last meters.
Laurance (’18) – he is climbing well but they used their numbers poorly. If they want to ride for Laurance, don’t blow up your lead-out rider. He too has a list of excellent results in this terrain, including stage wins in Etoile des Besseges, Catalunya and Tour of Norway.
Van Gils (’18) – I am not certain of tomorrow is too difficult for Arnaud de Lie, I think it could well be as I expect a few teams to try and drop him on the climbs. I just feel the stage tomorrow will explode and it will be easier to get things back together. Van Gils is very quick on the line and he has proven that he can sprint uphill.
Carapaz (’23) – I think this is the type of stages where he is overlooked. The uphill sprint in Dauphine in 2023 is a great example of it, plus his second place in Tre Valli Varesine too. He is a very solid option for a top-10.
Who will win?
I will take stage win and jersey for Matthews.
