Tour de Suisse 2024 – Stage 2
Well, it can be difficult trying to predict a prologue when the weather Gods decide to fool you. Nonetheless, it only made for a closer stage.
Route
Stage 2 takes us from Vaduz to Regensdorf
It is more or less a stage from the border of Lichtenstein to just north of Zurich.
Finale
It is a typical stage for Tour de Suisse. One that really suits the versatile sprinters. It is not a coincidence that Peter Sagan had 18 wins here. The finale starts with the Tissot Time Sprint (3, 2, 1 seconds) on Moosbrunnenstrasse. With 26.5 km and 25.5 km left, the riders have to two sprints close together. The short from the finale, you could wonder if anyone decides to get on the attack and try and stay off.
Regensberg is the main climb of the day. It really depends on how you look at it. Is it really 3.5 km at 6% or is it 2.9 km at 6.3%? I will go for the longer on, but understand that is its the first 2.4 km at 7.2% that are the toughest. You can see it start with 12.2 km left until the bend with 11 km left, those 1200m are 9%.
The run for home is half on the flat and half on the descent. What I notice to be really important is the last corner comes just 300m from the line.
How will the stage unfold?
With 1.2 km at 9%, I find it very difficult to any pure sprinter make it to the line. I don’t see a sprinter on LIDL-Trek and I think Skjelmose is confident to take up the sprint against some other GC men. I think UAE Team Emirates is another team without any chances in a reduced bunch sprint and with they have plenty of options going up the road. That means we will see some sort of pace chance and that will hurt. You don’t have a lot of time afterwards to get back on, as the main group is flying down the descent.
I still think the most likely scenario is a sprint. A few important teams will still have options to chase down the moves. Then you just need a good position under the Flamme Rouge, as we have two corners approaching the line.
Weather
We couldn’t trust MeteoSuisse today so tomorrow we are going with Open-Meteo.com. I see rain throughout the stage and not a lot of wind. According to MeteoSuisse, it will not rain. Let’s see.
Contenders
Axel Laurance – this is the type of stages I’d expect him to do very well in. After winning Tour of Norway, his form is clearly good. He has won a bunch sprint in Catalunya too, and the level of sprinters is not much better here. I think having SKA as his lead-out can be a very good thing tomorrow, if Søren doesn’t attack himself. It gives him a very good rider for the descent and in the sprint to be near the front in the finale 300m.
Bryan Coquard – his speciality. I just don’t think he is good enough to win, hence why he only has one WT win to his name. A safe name to place around 5th.
M. van den Berg – one of the fastest men who for certain will be up there. With Alberto Bettiol at his side, given he doesn’t attack, he has a fantastic lead-out rider inside the last kilometers. A top-3.
Ethan Hayter – I completely missed his Tour of Norway results. The form seems about the best this season. They have not brought their A-team, meaning they likely won’t be the one pacing on the climb. I wonder if Pidcock will do the honor of leading him out, I think that could be a very strong combo.
Michael Matthews – still with badges from previous races. It means he isn’t 100%. It is a shame, he was the rider after Sagan who always performed well on days like these. One of the elite versatile sprinters. He is just been overtaken by the youth. A top-3 is doable, the team strength is good.
Arnaud de Lie – he has been going well since he took a break after Gent-Wevelgem. He starts as the favorite, especially with Maxim van Gils in the finale.
Who will win?
I think Arnaud de Lie is the quickest here and the length of the steepest section doesn’t frighten him.
