Criterium du Dauphine 2024 – Stage 4 Preview

Today was a lesson to trust statistics and not gut feelings in this sport. It was too difficult for Pedersen. I must admit, it is fantastic to see aggressive racing again after the Giro d’Italia.

Tomorrow, it is against the clock.

Route

34.2 km and 414 climbing meters. I think this is a very important GC day. The first half is relatively flat, it is the second half that has the climbing.

Despite the distance, there are very few corners in the first flat half. Then the last 19 km is where we see climbs and more twisty roads.

And for good measure, a mix of it here. Here it is clear to see the difference between the first half and the second half.

Weather

Not a lot of wind blowing from the west. You can lose a bit of time in the headwind near the end. It does look like everyone has the same wind.

Contenders

Evenepoel – according to himself, he is not 100%. That doesn’t mean he isn’t the favorite tomorrow. There is a huge difference between doing a time trial of this length and then being competitive in the mountains late this week. He starts as the favorite.

Ayuso – this is a long time trial for him. I don’t think that is much of an advantage to him. Still, I’d expect him to finish in the top-5.

Tarling – I’d expect him to be second favorite tomorrow. He has had the luxury of taking it easier the past two days. He would have preferred a pan flat time trial. The last hillier section is not something that goes his way. Despite this, he is a good climber for his size.

Armirail – some form he was carrying on stage 2. I’d expect him to aim for a top-5.

Roglic – Another one I’d expect around top 5 tomorrow. I’m looking forward to seeing how he compares with Ayuso.

Who will win?

It is between Tarling and Evenepoel. I’ll for the Belgian – stage win and jersey for Evenepoel.