Criterium du Dauphine 2024 – Stage 3 Preview

Heartbreaking for Armirail. Another big win for UNO-X who are on a hot streak. Tomorrow more or less brings the same in terms of difficulty but the climbing meters are more spread-out in the finale. It doesn’t look as tough as today but it is.

Route

I sometimes talk about the PCS Score. Stage 2 had 117. Tomorrow it is 110. There are just more moments for a breather. I think if you get to the plateau with 20.5 km left, you stand a very good chance at being in the main group when the last climb starts. Therefore, I think faster riders will be in the mix.

The riders head south.

Finale

There is a long, long drag tomorrow. It is honestly a bit odd looing at the KOM sprints, they don’t make too much sense. There is a few hard sections. I note 1.3 km at 6.7% with 45 km left, 800m at 7.8% with 37 km left but the rest stay below 6% and that is a good general rule of thumb regarding if riders are able to sit on or not.

The last 7km are 4.1%. A long drag, much so like today. The organizers have decided only to take the last 3.9km as categorized.

You can see the climb here after the small descent above. 3.7km at 5.3% before it flattens out. The last 300m are merely 0.9%.

Weather

A nice tailwind tomorrow, also on the last climb.

Contenders

Magnus Cort – what a brilliant win today. Perfectly timed by the team but they will not have that luxury tomorrow. They need to defend the jersey, it means a lot for team of their level. It means they have to be really careful letting the breakaway go. Bora-Hansgrohe helped control today, the stage tomorrow suits them less. On paper, they should be able to control the stage more or less. The issue is setting up the sprint, here they will have less riders. He starts as the favorite.

Primoz Roglic – 2nd today. Important bonus seconds. As Evenepoel and Ayuso didn’t contest today, I think he will be keen for round 2 on stage 3. He has the time trial in mind of course but burning a match tomorrow shouldn’t play a large role regarding that.

Romain Gregoire – 10th today. Madouas is off and it does not suit Gaudu. Pacher had an attack today, I think they should look to Gregoire. He has a fantastic sprint, certainly good enough for a top-5.

Lukas Nerurkar – I must admit that he did better than I expected. His current form is fantastic and he is actually quite fast in a sprint. Powless had a mechanical today, hopefully he and Sean Quinn will be able to help him tomorrow with Jonas Rutch. I’m not certain who made that call to ride at the front, it was not their responsabilty at all. A top-5.

Mads Pedersen – the reason I think he can make tomorrow is simple. The finale is more strethed out. He managed to stay in the peloton today for a long time, it was at the very end the elastic broke. He showed a fighting spirit as always, and the sprinters don’t get many chances this edition. Therefore, I think he is more of a coinflip tomorrow, where as I ruled him out for stage 2.

Dorian Godon – not certain what happened. Everyone can have an off day. I still think he can contest for top results on days like this.

Georg Zimmerman – Breakaway hope #1

Krists Neilands – Breakaway hope #2

Andreas Kron – Breakaway hope #3

Who will win?

I think it will be another Danish win. You can almost feel the Summer arriving here in Denmark.

I think Mads Pedersen will cling on and win the sprint.