Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 20
The last battle in the mountains. Twice up the Monte Grappa. It reminds me a lot of the double Mont Ventoux ascends we had in the Tour de France a few years back.
Route
A flat opening with the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio as the only real climbing before the first ascent of the climb.
The riders head southwest until the climbing begins.
Where will the breakaway form?
It is a tough guess tomorrow. I’d assume it happens before they start going up Monte Grappa for the first time but one can not be certain. The section is mostly flat but the Muro di Ca’ Del Poggio is more than just a bump in the road.
Here you have a general overview of the flat first half of the stage. It does have 800 vertical meters.
Monte Grappa
I compared it to Mont Ventoux (Bédoin) and they are fairly similar. The main difference is that the Monte Grappa is more irregular and that can make it difficult to find a rhythm.
Descent from Monte Grappa
I think you should aim for the last crest of Monte Grappa being the finish line, as the last 30 kilometers are downhill. That is a long way where you must be concentrated.
It looks fast and technical. We could see splits on their first time down.
Weather
It does look like we will have a bit of rain in the finale. It makes the descents even more important.
Contenders
It is one of the few long mountains of this edition. If we compare it to the tough mountain top finishes, only the Passo di Foscagno and Mottolino compares. And they only did that effort once.
Pogacar – he does not need to at all. I just think he does it anyway.
Martinez – can he defend the 2nd place spot? I wouldn’t have thought. Something still tells me that tomorrow will be a bad day for him, and if not, then he will have developed into a very fine GT rider. So far, he has exceeded my thoughts about him as a rider.
Thomas – it is the stages where he always is consistent. There have been talk about his current state, even before he crashed today. G is of the old guard, and they are always ready when it counts. He will be on the podium in Rome.
O’Connor – struggling with health problems. It is not optimal. I think he will have a bad day tomorrow.
Tiberi – 41 seconds to Arensman. He struggled on Mottolino, I think he loses the white jersey tomorrow.
Arensman – welcome one of the best in the third week. I don’t understand the tactics from INEOS completely and he will likely be used to work for Thomas. It would be a shame. Instead, have him have a go at it, see what he can do and put pressure on Martinez, O’Connor and Tiberi while G has a free ride.
Bardet – let’s see what DSM is up too. I hope to see him attack on a descent and throw everything on the line. I think that is the only chance of him moving up a spot.
Rubio – I think he will succeed in defending 8th overall.
Quintana – I’m not certain how he makes the breakaway on the flat but it is stages like this where he has made magic in the past decade.
Steinhauser – if he has anything left at all. What a breakthrough.
Majka – likely on duty but I hope he tries getting in the breakaway.
Caruso – on white jersey duty but still good enough to win, if he ends in the breakaway.
Who will win?
Tadej Pogacar.
