Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 17

A route chance on stage 16 saw a different stage than anticipated. I think it was a good decision not to do 50 hairpins downhill from Stelvio. Movistar brought it back for Pogacar, it seems he is satisfied for now and that plays a role tomorrow.

Route

It is the third hardest day in terms of climbing. Short and nearly 4000 climbing meters.

The riders head south tomorrow.

Where will the breakaway form?

It usually can take up to 80 kilometers, I’d argue it happens on the first climb and a few riders can bridge the gap on the descent.

Passo Sella is the first climb at hand. A steady climb and it will be fireworks the first 25 minutes. The riders get up to 2240m above sea level here, watch out for the Colombians. They head south here.

The descent is technical but the width of the roads are fairly wide, at least compared to the Stelvio descent that got canceled.

A long valley takes us to the next climb, and this is the last chance for a breakaway to get up the road and stay away. They head east here. It is not the hardest climb but it does get more difficult in the second sector. From the top, the riders have 91.5 km left.

Finale

A long descent after Passo Rolle plus a minor climb takes us to the last two climbs.

Albergo Passo Brocon is an excellent climb for attacking early and getting up the road. We’ve seen it work a few times now. It is uneven and close to 30 minutes. The riders will have 32 minutes left from the top. And yes, this is the hardest climb of the stage.

A plateau followed by yet another twisty descent takes us to the finale. Passo Brocon uses the same mountain to go up but it is from another side.

We can argue all day where it starts. I’d argue here. You can see it eases of in the last 2.4 km.

It is the middle part of the climb that is really tough. 4.2 km above 10%. It should sting after such a day in the saddle.

Weather

A day with everything. Thunder, rain, clouds and sun.

A cold day, the temperature only reaches above 10 degrees C in the valleys. It will start raining around 11:00 with light thunderstorms looming over the riders. It looks very wet on the descent from Passo Rolle, it could be an area the GC men will take slowly. Luckily, it is not the hardest descent in the world. Then it resumes with rain throughout the stage. Not too much wind but there can be strong gusts on the mountain tops.

How will the stage unfold?

UAE did not want to win today, Pogacar himself and Majka said so after the stage. They wanted to gift it to Majka but he was not on his best of days. I think it should be a day for the breakaway, many of them will have saved their bullets today.

Where it will form is another matter. A crosswind on the first climb and the second one. So both of them works I suppose.

The GC fight will be there on the hard part of Passo Broncon. We saw today what 2 km at 11.7% could do, tomorrow it is 4.2 km at 10.1%. I think the two riders sitting just outside the top-10 (Fortunato + Storer) do it the old way and stay within the main group. The rest should have a gap large enough to go for it themselves.

Contenders

Pogacar – let’s put him here just in case.

Martinez – and him too. The fact the stage changed today was very good for him, he does tend to like an explosive finale after a relatively short day. I think we will see tomorrow, that he will find it a bit harder.

Majka – get him on the rollers and let him attack. He is an unsung hero with plenty of big stage wins under his belt. Despite him being from Poland, he tends to do better in the blistering sun.

VPP – he looks like the best climber from AG2R just now. However, team duties and the goal for podium is a likely scenario.

Caruso – Tiberi bounces back. I think it will be difficult for him to get his own chance but we saw today that his form is very good and he enjoys a rainy day. The white jersey should be more important.

Quintana – he has shown his cards and Rubio today did not look like a man worth riding for. If they are after a stage win which they clearly are, Quintana and P. Sanchez should be allowed in the breakaway given their form. A tough duo to beat.

Lopez – he tried to attack today very early on but was brought back. Another chance awaits tomorrow.

Steinhauser – he has looked very good on the climbs. The issue is the steep finale.

Valter – hung on for a long while today. He looks ready to fight for it in the breakaway.

Storer – I’m not certain if teams will be happy with him in the breakaway. With the way he is climbing, he has try and hopefully sneak in it. It could get him a top-10 spot.

Who will win?

I will take a win for Nairo Quintana.