Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 15

This is where the fun begins. After 14 stages, we finally get what I would refer to as a proper mountain stage. The ones that truly define the outcome. It is a long and grueling stage with 221 km and 5300 climbing meters. It will take more than six hours which also adds more selection. And I almost forgot to mention we finish in 2380 meters above sea-level. On gravel.


The breakaway will form on Lodrino or Colle San Zeno. Then have a long valley leading to Passo del Mortirolo. A short descent before Passo di Foscagno before they get to the finale part of the stage. Finishing in Livigno, where I’d imagine many of you may have spent your winter holidays in the past if you like skiing.

Mainly heading north tomorrow. The wind could play a large role, especially if it is a headwind. Then the breakaway has very limited options

Breakaway formation

The first golden 80 km. A few teams will make sure a move doesn’t go too far before the climbing begins. I don’t think the first hill is good enough for any pure climber to get up the road, the will have to wait for, Colle San Zeno.

Here you have the Colle San Zeno. Steepest in the second part with the last 3.3 km at 8.2%.


The GC teams will start to get going on the penultimate climb, Passo del Mortirolo. A fairly long effort. I doubt any GC riders will get dropped here, but it is the type of climb the riders will feel in their legs for the remainder of the stage.

The descent is fast and tricky. Narrow roads. Twists and turns. Then we have the last two climbs. I want to categorize them as one, despite a short descent.

Passo di Fascagno is 14.9 km at 6.2%.
Mottolino (Livigno) is 4.5 km at 7.9%. Last 1.7 km at 10.1% on gravel.

Honestly, the it is the last 1.7 km that will create large time gaps. You can lose so much time there.


A tailwind day. I see some rain on the forecast, meaning you really need to be careful and concentrated for the penultimate climb. As mentioned, it isn’t an easy descent. The temperature will change throughout the stage, above 20 in the valleys and below 10 on the mountain tops.

How will the stage unfold?

The Queen Stage. It is a toughie. I think UAE want this stage but the can’t keep a good breakaway from happening. I think they will try to keep them within reach and see if Pogacar can take the stage win. It holds a lot of prestige winning a stage such as this.

I think we can imagine Bahrain-Victorious, INEOS or AG2R to try something. We already know INEOS prefer to take control on the descents and that means they want to be near the top on Passo del Mortirolo. Bahrain-Victorious look like a team, who is willing to at least try something. AG2R are playing the breakaway-card more actively with VPP who currently looks like one of the best climbers here.

So what will happen is simple. The breakaway forms. UAE decide if they want to stage or not. I think they do and I think other teams will at one point try to create a selection and make it tough. The easy part of the last climb is not optimal for a single rider, as you benefit from drafting. And I do honestly think the last 1700 above 10% (ON GRAVEL!) will create large margins between riders.


Pogacar – I can’t see how they are going to beat them.

Thomas – these are the stages that makes him one of the best Grand Tour riders in the World. His consistency when we have these mountain-marathon stages. I think he will be in second place after tomorrow aswell.

Martinez – I think he cracks tomorrow. It is not something that suits him.

O’Connor – He will move up to third tomorrow. He looks really sharp and he has a fantastic team. I hope they stay in the bunch tomorrow.

Tiberi – the only one willing to dance just now. He will likely sit 5th heading into the rest day.

Rubio – breakaway hope #1

VPP – breakaway hope #2

Bardet – breakaway hope #3

Storer – breakaway hope #4

Hirt – breakaway hope #5

Who will win?

Tadej Pogacar.

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