Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 12

The sprinters got their chance once more. Tomorrow, I would throw in the towel. It is a day for the breakaway stage.

Route

It doesn’t look tough. However, once more, the organizers have let a climb go uncategorized. I think that climb simply will have LIDL-Trek and Alpecin-Fenix consider their options. Groves and Milan should be the only one, in terms of sprinters, who one should consider tomorrow. They have other options, who also deserve their own shot.

Once more, moving north.

Details.

A good colleague of mine asked, how does this compare to stage 9.

Stage 9
Profile score: 77.
Vert. meters: 1574.
Last climb: 3.3 km at 4.6% – crest with 7.0 km left.

Stage 12
Profile score: 95.
Vert. meters: 2165.
Last climb: 1.2 km at 9.4% – crest with 12.7 km left.

In conclusion, this is a tougher stage. I doubt LIDL-Trek and Alpecin-Deceuninck can control it.

Finale

Last climb but not necessarily the move that wins. We often see the Fuga de la Fuga (the breakaway within the breakaway). Plus, the flat start makes it optimal for rouleurs to take the day.

Weather

Another tailwind day.

Contenders

Narvaez – he is fantastic just now. We all know that very few will be able to match him on the last climb, the question is, will anybody have distanced him beforehand? I think INEOS should let multiple options go for it, it is a fine stage for Sheffield too.

Q. Hermans – I think it is a good looking stage for him. It should suit him.

Ballerini – he is all over the place! Astana could have a few riders mentioned but Ballerini strikes me as a man, who will know how to play the fuga de la fuga tomorrow.

A. Vendrame – he is low in the climbing hierchy now. It means he has a few hilly stages where he likely has the freedom to go for it. Tomorrow is one of those days.

M. Valgren – I can’t be the only one noticing him sitting with the group of favorites for so long on stage 10. He has found his best shape in a long time.

S. Clarke – usually plays a role on days like this.

J. Stuyven – seems to be doing a fine job in the sprints. I wonder if tomorrow is the type of stage where he will get the freedom to finally attack?

De Marchi – usually plays a role on days like this.

J. Tratnik – He won a very similar stage a few years ago.

M. Trentin – it is too hard for Dainese, which opens up a spot for Trentin.

Who will win?

This is a pick both with heart and brain. A win for Michael Valgren.