Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 11

We got our breakaway win, finally. VPP was the strongest again. Impressive by the French climber. I do think AG2R look sharp, now we will have to see if they can come up with a master plan to get on the podium.

Stage 11

A long stage. It will be your cat and mouse stage. I think the cat will win tomorrow, as a lot of riders should look for stage 12. That should suit the breakaway more.

They are heading north tomorrow. They get to Termoli halfway before moving more northwest finishing just south of Pescara in Francavilla al Mare.

Where will the breakaway form?

We could see a big fight for the breakaway. It is all about letting it go as early as possible, letting a few riders get a large gap and then just sit back. Pietracetella is a tough one. Lidl-Trek and Alpecin-Deceuninck need to make sure they don’t do the same as in stage 5 and completely demolish the sprinters. They need more than two teams to reel this in. Luckily, they have 140 km left to chase.

Finale

Last corner 3600m out. A boulevard sprint that suits the quickest riders.

Weather

Tailwind. It really suits he breakaway. They just need to play the game correctly and then work well together near the end and they stand a chance of staying away. It is a headwind sprint, a few teams will hope to pop up late.

Contenders

Milan – he is the fastest man here but he is not the most experienced sprinter. He often starts his sprint early and I do not think that is what you need tomorrow. Still, LIDL-Trek has the best lead-out and the longest sprint train. They likely also has to work the hardest to ensure a sprint. I think Milan would like a win or two more, before they start passing the responsibility on to the next one.

Merlier – biggest contender to Milan. The issue is, he has pain in his hip. He is still present for a reason, it means his hip is likely getting better. Van Lerberghe is an excellent lead-out man too, they often get the timing just right. However, he usually doesn’t win much as a GT progress.

Groves – they have tried to get it right a few times, it seems their tactics are all over the place. They cocked up stage 5. The same can be said for stage 9. They must keep trying. I just don’t think he is quick enough to win a boulevard sprint.

Bauhaus – it is still a team that is more or less intact. I think a top-3 in the peloton sprint.

Dainese – 4th in Naples was a very positive sign. Him and Trentin will get it right at one point. Dainese often gets better the more race days he gets.

Ewan – a headwind sprint. Let’s see if he can improve his best result so far, which is a sixth.

Jakobsen – another one who feel like a former shadow of himself. At one point, he and Lund Andresen will both survive the climbing and do a fantastic sprint. Perhaps tomorrow is the day, if the peloton lets him back on after the first climb.

B. Thomas – breakaway hope #1

Affini – breakaway hope #2

Valgren – breakaway hope #3.

Who will win?

I’m going for the sprint, and J. Milan has everything going for him still.