Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 10

Rest day. It often feels very long the first week of a Grand Tour. I think it is because you watch from the breakaway formation and until the finale, the other week-long races don’t have that.

A few notes from the first week of racing: Pogacar is the best and the race wide open between three riders for second. Everyone was afraid to attack on stage 8, which meant they basically cruised up Prato di Tivo (they did it slower than Ulissi in Il Giro d’Abruzzo).

UAE are better than I thought at sniffing out danger from morning moves. They don’t fancy INEOS being a part of it, or riders such as Bardet being a part of but it was not an issue Steinhauser was, and he was closer in the GC. Therefore I can’t tell you the fine line of the riders being allowed by Team UAE. My guess is currently from 15th and down, that way you don’t get INEOS, Bora-Hansgrohe or AG2R on your back.

Stage 10

It looks like a breakaway stage to me. If not, they just hand Pogacar another stage win. The main problem with this being a breakaway stage is that the breakaway must form on the climbs in order for it to have a real chance. That just gives them close to no time to build up a gap before Bocca Delle Selva.

Starting in Pompeii near the foot of Vesuvio, they race to the Parco Regionale del Matese, known for its wolves and the golden eagle.

Breakaway formation

So, I’ll go with the first 80 km. It sounds silly. It isn’t. That is exactly how long it took on stage 6 when P. Sanchez won from the breakaway. The only issue is, they have 60 km to the finish line from the top. That is not a lot. Pogacar will smell blood and he takes no prisoners.

So, we have an intermediate sprint. I think a few teams want to hold it together until then. Alpecin-Deceuninck and LIDL-Trek. Then, we will see if we have a very mixed group of cunning breakaway riders and sprinters. It would really help to have some engines. The sprint is 3000m at 4.4%.

If the breakaway doesn’t happen there, it will happen on the climbs. Cirignano is the first, shorter one. 2.9 km at 8.2%. Then the larger and longer one, Camposauro. It is 5.4 km at 8.1%.


There are now 40 km where we find out, who will win. The breakaway or Pogacar. It takes us to the foot of the last climb.

Cusano Mutri (Bocca delle Selva) which begins when they cross the Titerno river. It comes it three stages but I wouldn’t say it is very, very difficult.

When you compare it to Jebel Jais, they seem equally difficult. It also seems equally difficult with Prato di Tivo. God I love this tool by Veloviewer. So an uphill GC sprint but a fairly long effort close to 50 minutes.


Not very windy at all. They turn into a tailwind near the intermediate sprint, which will make it hard to get away (or easier for Alpecin-Deceuninck and LIDL-Trek) to control. A tailwind up the Cirignano (2.9 km at 8.2%.). The break should form there.

It will rain in the last 50 km or so. A lot actually around 17:00. The temperature stays high.

How will the stage unfold?

The second week is not very difficult. There is the stage tomorrow which is a mountain top finish. The the sprinters or breakaway will have stage 11 and 12. The sprinters should be able to get stage 13, before the GC men do the last time trial on stage 14. Ultimately, it culminates with a very tough mountain stage on Sunday for stage 15. So, it could easily be a day for team UAE, as it is the only mountain stage in the near future.

I think the peloton stays together until the intermediate sprint. The breakaway is formed on Cirignano (2.9 km at 8.2%.), perhaps a few strong climbers miss it an attempt to bridge across on Camposauro (5.4 km at 8.1%.). We then have 60 km left of the stage, and here it begins to rain.

So the question is, what do Team UAE want? Pogacar has three stage wins already but I don’t think that is enough for him. I think what makes this so difficult is that the breakaway has such little time to get a margin. And we saw they don’t always work well together (stage 8), a few of these climbers are not often willing to do their turn like the classics-riders.


Pogacar – he will have team work for it again, if the breakaway let’s them get it almost freely again. And then, he will simply outsprint them.

Martinez – has the second best punch compared to the other 2nd-place-contenders.

O’Connor – I don’t see him losing time but it will not be difficult enough for him to try and gain seconds on anyone.

Tibiri – more and more looking like a top-5 contender.

Thomas – I think the rest day was good timing. He had a crash on stage 9.

Storer – breakaway hope #1. He looked good on stage 8 and has the engine to get away on the flat too.

Zana – breakaway hope #2. I think this stage looks good for him.

Pozzovivo – breakaway hope #3. The veteran has been unlucky but he still manages to fight on. If the breakaway forms on the hills, he stands a good chance.

Bardet – breakaway hope #4. He has a bit more time now, which hopefully gives him a bit more freedom.

Lopez – breakaway hope #5. Stomach issues the day before Prato di Tivo. Now on the breakaway hunt. The team can help him get in the breakaway.

Who will win?

I will go for Juan Pedro Lopez, the team will slingshot him in the breakaway.

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