Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 8

A proper mountain top finish. Prato di Tivo. I think a lot of riders are looking forward to the rest day coming up. I don’t have much to report. O’Connor had a bike change that likely costed him 30 seconds today. Thomas just had “one of those days” that every cyclist and human have from time to time. Cian probably didn’t spent as much time on his TT bike in Spain as many would have thought and Plappy did a very good back to back stage.

Stage 8

We saw the riders use 80 km the other day forming the breakaway. It should happen on the two early mountains tomorrow. Then nothing major before the Prati di Tivo.

The race continues south finishing in Abruzzo. This ultimately makes sense, as Prato di Tivo was last raced in Il Giro d’Abruzzo 2024.

Morning climbs.

If you’ve nothing better to do, then you can always watch the breakaway form on a mountain stage. Sometimes it is more entertaining than the ultimate climb itself. Here you have it with a very different profiles.

Forca di Cerro (7.3 km at 4.1%). The sane man doesn’t attack here, he waits for the next climb.

If you are a cunning fox, you can use the descent in between to get away. It can just be very difficult to drop people downhill, but I’m looking at you Alaphillipe.

The Forca Capistrello is longer and therefore it suits a climber the best. First section is 3.9 km at 8.2%. Plateau. Second section is 5.5 km at 7.3%. Plateau. Then 1.3 km at 6.1%.

I’d expect the first two segments to be where the breakaway forms.


It starts on Croce Abbio. Not because of the climb but because of the long descent that follows. The descent does not look like it would create any trouble. Double-lane road. Not too many hairpins. First on the descent means first on Prato di Tivo.

Here you have it. Prato di Tivo. I’d imagine Pogacar does it somewhere near 35 minutes. The camera angle from the very top, when they approach on the wide road with trees on both sides is iconic.


The wind of change happened today, but tomorrow it does not look as it will play a large role. Warm, sunny and not the strongest gusts.

How will the stage unfold?

My mind has been set for a few days. It is for the breakaway. There are two teams who have been dominating this terrain. One of them is attempting a Giro-Tour double. The other just had the worst GT stage I can remember in a long time. Then add that Pogacar doesn’t seem overly concerned about borrowing the jersey to someone else. It invites top-10 to top-20 to attack.

I think it has been clear that UAE are not very concerned about controlling it too. The breakaway riders are sometimes their own worst enemies and the reason for it, is that a team or two miss the move. As I said, I think we see the breakaway happen on Forca Capistrello (16.6km at 6%). It will stay away to the end.

Back in the GC group, INEOS takes control ahead of the descent. Then we will see, who will cook up what. I think O’Connor will be doing well, and I think Thomas will bounce back. That means we have a fairly exciting duel between the two of them and Martinez. Remember, it is a 35 minute climb. A long effort after a long time trial.


Pogacar – Two stage wins and a margin of nearly three minutes. He will take time on his GC contenders tomorrow but likely in a very controlled fashion.

O’Connor – I think he will be the best GC man after Pogacar. Icarus has learned his lesson and he did really well today considering he lost his chain at one point.

Martinez – I think many expected a better performance from him today, still most of the time was lost on the flat according to my calculations. We saw on stage that that he is a diesel, and this is a climb that should suit him well.

Thomas – a good day to have a shit day. He didn’t loss that much to Martinez and he already had a buffer to O’Connor. He too is a diesel, he will enjoy the Prato di Tivo. I think the three of them will find it hard to distance one another.

Tiberi – did some good climbing today. I think he will attack late in the GC finale, and his closest rivals will find it hard to close him down (Lutsenko, Plapp and Cian). He would like to move up a spot or two before the rest day, it helps boost morale.

Rubio – breakaway contender #1.

Bardet – breakaway contender #2.

J. Lopez – breakaway contender #3.

Storer – breakaway contender #4.

Steinhauser – breakaway contender #5.

Who will win?

Despite him sitting very close to the top-10, I’ll go for Einer Rubio.

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