Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 7

Some day! It wasn’t at tough as many thought but it was fantastic spending a few hours seeing the breakaway form, just to have it form on the climb. Hah, I didn’t even think it would take that long. Sanchez proved that his results in La Vuelta 2023 wasn’t an evergreen, while Loulou looks better than I’ve seen him in a long time. Plapp is also back, he fought sickness in the first days.

In terms of strategy, it seems UAE are racing to defend the jersey and not chase every stage they can. They let the breakaway do their work early on, which means you can try and sneak in the breakaway in the coming stages. They took control on the climb and then used their riders to make sure Plapp didn’t take the jersey.

INEOS still look like the strongest team but the issue is for them, that they don’t have two men challenging Pogacar. Somehow, they need Arensman to pose a threat (or decoy) which could happen in the coming days.

Stage 7

First time trial. It is long. I’d imagine the first flat section of roughly 35 km will take around 43 minutes. A bit less perhaps, but I think the riders know the difference is made on the climb and you don’t want to run out of gas. The long flat TT of 2023 took 41:24′ minutes, and it didn’t have a climb.

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The climb. Plapp and O’Connor are the only ones I can see who has tested the climb but he went a bit deep today. Still, having tried the climb back in March it should be an advantage.

It is the first 1400m at 10.2% that are tough. I don’t think we will see any bike change. The steep part will likely take around 4:30.

Weather

Wind from the Northeast. Around 20 km/h throughout the day, or 5 m/s if you are a sane person.

It means the same wind conditions for all but I would argue the late starters have a small advantage as the weather is colder in the evening compared to the afternoon. A cross-headwind in the first 20 km, before more of a cross-tailwind in the last 20 km.

Contenders

I think the overall time will above 50 minutes. I can’t fathom it being under at all with the climb in mind as the long week they’ve just had. It is a really long time on the bike.

Mikkel Bjerg (14:24) – he lost a good deal of time today, I assume he got the nod from the boss telling him, that it was fine. Mikkel is a good time trialist and he already has a WT win against the clock on a lumpy day in Dauphiné. In his younger days, he was a specialists at long time trials. In 2023, he was 9th against the clock Stirling (6 seconds shy of 6th). I think he has a very good chance at a top-5 tomorrow.

Filippo Ganna (14:37) – time to see what he’s got in him. He is one of the main favorites but I do wonder, is the climbing good for him? Not really. He tends to perform worse as the vertical meters rise, at least against the clock. I think he will finish in the top-3, simply because he will be able to build a lead on the flat. I do however think, it can be difficult to keep it on the climb.

J. Tratnik (14:54) – I don’t know what to expect for Jan but I do know he is good against the clock when his form is right. I think a top-10 is possible.

Arensman (15:29) – slowly getting better and better. The issue is, does the Empire wish for him to save his ammo for Prato di Tivo? They shouldn’t, he can’t afford to lose anymore time. He was 7th on the long time trial in 2023, I think that is somewhere near where he ends up tomorrow. Around 5th place.

Luke Plapp (15:42) – he has tried the route back in March but he spent a bullet or two today. It doesn’t mean that he won’t be fighting for a good position tomorrow, I just think the two-time national champ from Australia will find it hard to get more than a top-10.

Ben O’Connor (15:54) – same goes for Ben O’Connor. I think, because of the finale, he will be able to get a top 10. At the very bottom of it.

Daniel F. Martinez (16:18) – it is rare we see him do time trials of these lengths. At least if we don’t count nationals. I’d think he will be going here, as he looks in very good shape. He had a very minor crash today, so maybe he has to race with bandages and that will slow him down. I think a top-5 or just about.

Geraint Thomas (16:21) – Geraint. It will be a top-3, I just cant tell you if it will be first, second or third.

Tadej Pogacar (16:24) – same goes for Tadej. I think he and G. Thomas will be in their own league in terms of the GC riders. A top-3.

Who will win?

I will take a win for Tadej Pogacar with INEOS rounding out the podium with G and Ganna.