Giro d’Italia 2024 – Stage 4
Time to settle into the rhythm. In today’s news, we report that Mikkel Honore looks very good and Pogacar plus Thomas look to be the strongest day to day. As expected, the sprint was close with Merlier and Milan fighting it out. I saw a lot of hope for Dainese and Kooij too, with a bit of luck they both could have been placed higher. And if you want to fool Pogacar, just join an intermediate sprint!
Route
A fun one! It will be all about Capo Melo. You can barely see it on the map but this is kind of a mini-edition of Milano-Sanremo.
They race south down along the Gulf of Genoa.
Finale
They follow Via Roma here, a double-lane road with the Gulf of Genoa just a stone throw away on their left as they climb. I imagine they will come full gas, meaning positioning is key. Everybody wants to be the first at the top, because that means you are the first on the descent.
The Capo Mele is a short effort. Two minutes is my guess. In Trofeo Laigueglia, the official profile is 1.4 km at 5.1%. This is the closest I could find.
The descent comes shortly after. It doesn’t look very twisted but it is. It will be near impossible to move up. They will carry immense speed downhill which can be used to make sure you stay at the front for a long, long time. I see a roundabout 400m out, it will make certain we see a single lane as they should only be able to pass on the left side of it. Then the sprints opens a brief moment later.
Comparison of the stage 3 climb and stage 4 climb.
Very similar, the difference is just the descent makes it easier to stay away!
Weather
Not very windy. I’m interested in the last part of the race. It looks like a crosswind on the climb into a tailwind on the descent. What you can’t see below is that it should rain too, which just makes the GC riders extra alert.
Contenders
It will be a two-minute climb. Expect INEOS to dominate the battle for position. Pogacar will be right up there too. I think Laporte + Kooij did a good job, Tudor, Alpecin-Deceuninck and Lidl-Trek looked good today before the climb. Remember, the descent makes it easier to stay away after the climb.
Merlier – I simply think he will be too far back after the climb. What they did today was amazing but they won’t have the time to do it tomorrow.
Pogacar – can he attack and stay away? It seems very, very plausible after today.
Milan – he and Stuyven looked the best but Eddy + Consonni didn’t. You need everybody to be at their best, and their issue was staying all four together before the climb. If they can make it happen tomorrow, Milan wins.
Kooij – looked brilliant positioned before the climbed but dropped a lot after it. He MUST stay on Laporte’s wheel, otherwise it will be difficult tomorrow.
Groves – looked very good on the climb, a bit worse in the sprint. Another chance tomorrow for a top-10.
Girmay – climbed nicely and had a good kick at the end. A top-10.
Honore – if he has one more in him, it is time to try again tomorrow.
Ganna – someone is going to try and take the bonus seconds from Pogacar. That man is Ganna.
Lund Andresen – Jakobsen clearly isn’t climbing very well. Another top-10 tomorrow.
Who will win?
I’m feeling like Ganna will take the stage tomorrow. INEOS will be the strongest on the climb and Ganna can beat Pogacar in a sprint. And why wouldn’t Pogacar attack tomorrow when he saw what could happen today?
