Tour de Romandie 2024 – Stage 5
It has been a while since I went 2 for 2 in a stage race. Let’s see if I can 3/3 to build some form ahead of the Giro d’Italia.
Route
Not the hardest day on the bike to be fair.
They do four laps clockwise before racing towards the finish line.
Finale
I note wide roads. That means high speeds and everyone wants to give their all on the last stage. A bit of downhill in the last 1500m is not something I root for, we will hope they stay upright.
Last corner 350m out. It is all about being in the top 5-8 spots there, otherwise – Game Over.
Weather
Rainy.
Breakaway or sprint?
I couldn’t stay off Twitter yesterday evening after the Carapaz win and there people were already pondering on this stage. So who wants a sprint finish? I can make an argument that LIDL-Trek do, despiste them already winning a stage. I could say that INEOS Grenadiers do but I think they would rather be interested in giving away bonus seconds. Plus, Hayter looks like he needs a long summer vacation already. Aranburu? They have both Cavagna and Jacobs to make certain the breakaway is within reach.
Those were the maybes, these are the absolutes. Tudor have Dainese present, Q36.5 have Moschetti and Lotto has Milan Menten. Or are they? Lotto-Dstny has Kron + De Gendt. Q36.5 have Brenner. All in all, I like their team going for a sprint more.
You can always make an argument for or against these teams. Some of the will not chase despite having one of the best sprinters, and some of them will chase instead of joining the morning breakaway. That’s just cycling.
In case a breakaway rider wins, look for the rouleurs.
Contenders
T. van Dijke – I did wonder if this is a bit too harsh terrain for him. It really shouldn’t be. He had a late breakthrough this spring and remember to note that down for next year. Fourth rider through Arenberg. In the wheel of Mathieu van der Poel, M. Pedersen and J. Phillipsen. Plus, 20th in La Flèche Wallone in heavy rain indicates the weather shouldn’t bother him. In case we see a bunch sprint, he stands a great chance there – he is quick.
K. Asgreen – can he redeem his Spring with a stage win today? I doubt it will be enough for himself but it would be a symbolic victory. There was a hint of something in Paris-Roubaix, he did a lot of the work in that breakaway. He hasn’t given up, and that is what almost got him two stage wins in the Tour de France 2023. He too can sprint decently.
G. Veermersch – For a rider who closed down every move in Paris-Roubaix, he doesn’t have many wins himself. 6th in Paris-Roubaix and 3rd on stage 2 in Romandie. He is getting closer and closer. He shouldn’t mind the rain at all and he too has the option of the morning breakaway or the bunch sprint.
N. Arndt – the type of stages that always makes me point to him. I’m not really sure if he copes well with the rain? I guess today will tell. I still think he is a solid top-10 contender.
D. Godon – can he take another stage win? His 8th at La Flèche Wallone is a clear answer to any questions we have regarding the weather. He can sprint and he can climb well enough for a stage such as this. He does start as one of the favorites. I do think AG2R wants a sprint.
A. Aranburu – has to hope a few teams are willing to work with them. A top-5 contender, I doubt he will join the breakway.
M. Valgren – I’m not really sure if he has anything left in the tank. It has been brilliant to see him fight his way back and 8th in Dwaars door Vlaanderen was a good result. I think it is a good stage for him. Lumpy and a bit Championship-design-like which he usually is a fan of. Plus the rainy conditions of course.
M. Menten – he should be the quickest man here with Dainese. I would ride for a sprint.
A. Dainese – he should be the quickest man here with Menten. I would ride for a sprint.
E. Hayter – he could get a free ride from the team today. I just doubt the stage is difficult enough for him at all.
Who will win?
I’m leaning more and more towards a sprint. It does make the most sense. I’ll go for a rider who I think can win from a group or a bunch sprint – Tim van Dijke.
