Tour de Romandie 2024 – Stage 4
It is time for the last GC stage. A proper mountain stage.
Route
It is a shame they don’t finish the stage on Ovrannaz. Still, it will play an interesting factor for everyone willing to challenge UAE Team.
I doubt much will happen on Les Rvives and Les Giettes. The valley from the top to the start of Leysin will likely have teams ease off and fill their deposits before the mountaintop finish.
Leysin is not a new climb. We saw it back in 2017, with A. Yates winning the stage. Back then, the run in to the finale 5200 was different, meaning we have a harder challenge tomorrow.
Ovronnaz
A fucking hard climb. Just a real shame to put it that early.
Les Rives and Les Glettes
I doubt we will see a lot of attacks here. People are worried, as the worst is yet to come.
Leysin
Is it difficult enough for gaps? If it is, it will be after the switchback 5200m out. It is a tough day overall.
Weather
A lot of wind tomorrow. I’m very curious how it will impact the race after Les Rives and Les Glettes. We could see teams attempting to split it.
This is the spot where you can try to catch people off guard. The little uncategorized climb in Ollon. A very short 8500m segment but it is completely open with a strong cross-tailwind. It is just before the last climb to Leysin.
Contenders
Ayuso – he sits in pole position. Is not always the best place to be, as everyone is racing against you. UAE tactics are from time to time not the greatest. However, I think they’ve upped their game recently. They should, despite having to control the stage, have enough numbers to the set him up on the last climb. The 5200m marker is where they need to drop him, from here he needs to prove why he is the second in command at the team.
Van Wilder – this should be too difficult for him. I don’t think he can challenge for the overall GC nor the podium to be fair. I see him drop a few placings. Still, I do think he is good enough to ride for a top-10 overall.
Vlasov – he looks brilliant. Plus, he has a brilliant set of helpers in Hindley and Higuita. He packs a decent punch if it comes down to a sprint, he can use all the bonus seconds he can get his hands on. He has improved his game on the longer climbs, so I doubt they’ll drop him that easily tomorrow.
L. Martinez – it is a diesel climb and he is not a diesel to me. A top-10. Plus, I worry he will get caught out in the crosswinds.
C. Rodriguez – I’d imagine he will be right up there tomorrow. Always flying a bit under the radar but 7th today was an indication that he will be the first contender to Ayuso tomorrow. He will be in the general top-3 tomorrow.
E. Mas – a top-10. Slowly getting there, just a shame the first part of his season is over.
S. Yates – flip a coin. He could win or he could be caught out in the crosswinds. I think the latter.
Carapaz – as George Harrison once sang, “I got my mind set on you”. 1:16 down leaves him a wiggle room. He impressed me in the Ardennes.
Who will win?
I will take a stage win for Carapaz. He rarely wins outside Grand Tours but he is not a GC threat tomorrow.
