Milano-San Remo 2024
We all know it well by now. La Primavera.
Route
A bit shorter than last year. All I’m looking at is simply the finale.
Starts in Pavia, as they move down towards the Gulf of Genoa. The follow the coastline to San Remo
Finale
Cipressa and Poggio. They do it faster and faster each year. Had they been in any race shorter than 200 kilometers, they likely wouldn’t have their status.
Cipressa
The longest climb of the two. The peloton does it around 9:30 minutes. UAE Team took a good minute to find the front last year with Ulissi, Wellens, Trentin and Pogacar. Grossschartner found the front too but it meant they started the selection progress a bit later than what would have liked.
You sit and hope your favorite riders make it, it often has it’s victims after 260km. I would expect a bunch sprint for the narrowing of he road past the yellow house and the church. People want to be at the front near the top.
We had a gap here in 2023. Trentin with MvdP and Søren Kragh Andersen. As everyone more or less start the descent in a single row, being a good descender means you can create a gap.
Poggio
The best do it in 5:36. It is a very short climb and a very explosive one too. You need to have a team put the hammer down at the foot and not stop until the top. Bahrain-Victorious did it last year, before Wellens and Pogacar made their move.
Everyone is again in a single row. The group was above 30 riders two thirds up. Trentin did the Belgian-trick, letting the wheel go before eight riders were left (Wellens, Pogacar, Søren Kragh Andernsen, Ganna, Mads Pedersen, Mohoric, MvdP and WvA). A stroke of genius by the Italian.
Few seconds later, the quartet of Pogacar, Ganna, Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel got a gap only to be a trio when Van der Poel got away.
We’ve seen the winner found here in the past. Matej Mohoric showed you how it can be done.
And to the line.
Weather
Not a lot of wind. No rain. 15 degrees C.
How will the race unfold?
Only two teams you need to focus on really. You have Alpecin – Deceuninck and UAE Team Emirates. The first team just wants to make sure Pogacar doesn’t come up with any shenanigans. If they can get a sprint between the Slovenian and the Dutchman, I think they will be happy to take it. Look out for the on the descents, that is honestly where they pose the biggest threat.
UAE Team Emirates arrive with more or less the same team as in 2023. Trentin is a huge loss, he is fantastic in making sure Tadej Pogacar is at the front. Wellens is luckily here to make sure they have a very strong helper on Poggio. But Chris, what about Del Toro? The race is 293 km long. It will be his longest ride by a landslide.
UAE will do the same as last year. Can they do another Belgian-trick to create a selection? In 2022, they succeeded with creating a big selection on the Cipressa, mainly due to Formolo who they’ve not let go. They issue was Pogacar kept attacking into the headwind on the Poggio afterwards.
Can the attack happen on the Cipressa? It is a high risk high reward strategy. It is the tougher climb of the two. Plus, a few teams will still have a few domestiques left, so it would be something I would advise against. It is not wise to burn your matches before Poggio.
Contenders
Mathieu van der Poel – some win last year. It is a very few group of riders that can distance Tadej Pogacar on any climb. His form is a bit unknown but nowadays they rarely cock up their preparation. It must be the same strategy as last time. He must be able to hang on, keep staying near the front and then see if he has the same energy to make a move over Poggio. That long and stinging attack – a trademark.
Tadej Pogacar – he won’t be happy. How often does he start in a race he targets for three years straight and not even finish on the podium? He is mortal after all. It means the team will work very hard on the Cipressa and the Poggio. They must be able to hit the front sooner, it was their worst enemy in 2023. Without Trentin, I don’t see that improving.
Alberto Bettiol – the form is good and he sacrificed himself last year for Powless. I think he is the protected rider tomorrow. I don’t see him winning but I do think a top-10 is possible.
Laurence Pithie – it is a big test for him. I have often slept on the new kids in town. The distance will likely be an issue, but he is racesmart and good on shorter climbs. Plus his sprint isn’t hopeless, it is often important for a top-10 result here.
Tom Pidcock – I think he is the best INEOS Grenadiers rider just now. Atleast for this type of race. He proved in Tirreno-Adriatico that he perhaps slowly is becoming a GC rider. How much does that affect his skills for a one day race? I doubt he can follow the two favorites, but a top-10 should not impress anyone.
Mads Pedersen – he was ill before the 2023 edition and still he managed to be in the group behind Ganna, MvdP, WvA and Pogacar. I think he is better this year. Good enough to follow the duo I suspect to go clear? I honestly think he stands the best chance. Does he beat them both in a sprint? After 290 km on the bike, you can never tell.
Christophe Laporte – he got distanced early last year. I doubt that will be the same in 2024. I think one of the biggest problems with his excellent 2023 campaign was the lack of top results in the Spring monuments. Not a single top-10 in La Primavera, Ronde van Vlaanderen or Paris-Roubaix. He is a real outsider for me tomorrow, he checks many of the same boxes as Mads Pedersen. His best result here is 13th which is a concern of mine.
Matteo Trentin – I have to hand it to him after his brilliant work last year. I wonder how far he could have gotten himself, had he not let go of Wout van Aert’s wheel. A top-10.
Matej Mohoric – I think a top-10 is almost certainty. I wrote for the Strade – Bianche preview that his opening weekend was worse than expected (from my expectations and valuation of him as a rider). Then again, he tends to strive whenever a race goes beyond 250 kilometers and that is why the race is good for him. I expect to see him on the descends, he was not far off in 2023 either.
Who will win?
Pogacar is the key to figuring out the race. His team too. It will be just as tough on the Poggio as in 2022 and 2023. The issue will be they will reach the front to late, making it “easier”.
Still, Pogacar decides the outcome. Finally, he will win in San Remo.
