Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 – Stage 7 Preview
With the GC settled, the sprinters will have one last go at taking a stage win.
Route
We’ve seen this stage been used before. The first stage is hilly, we will see if a strong breakaway gets up the road. Otherwise, as mentioned, it will be a day for the sprinters.
Starting just south of San Benedetto del Tronto. The riders head west for the hilly first half (excluding the last climb) before moving back towards the coast for the finale.
Finale
It is fairly easy heading up to the right hand turn with 2750m left. That corner has a road island, meaning you want to be near the front beforehand. Then we have the underpass with 2400m left that always give me goosebumps, it just feels unnecessary. It is followed by the last turn 2200m from the line. Roughly 1200m out, the road narrows as they move onto a single-lane combined with a roundabout. Then they dive for the S-corner 750m out, it always stretches the group out.
You need to either arrive really late with three persons still intact, otherwise you need to be in a top-10 position in the peloton to contest the sprint.
Weather
15 degrees C, no rain and a mix of headwind and tailwind on the lap. It will be a headwind sprint yet the wind seems to calm down a fair bit. A big difference between 6 m/s and 2 m/s headwind sprint.
Contenders
Phillipsen – I think it is a good thing for him we’ve just had two tough stages. He thrives in it. The team is more or less intact, he still has the core of his lead-out train present. He won here in 2023, where Mathieu van der Poel did a very long lead-out.
Girmay – they need a good result tomorrow. The entire team is here to see Girmay take home that result. The have so much firepower and they have the chance to move up very, very late if they don’t win the initial lead-out battle 750m out. Does he have the speed? For a top-3, yes. Does he need to be more consistent in following his lead-out? Yes.
Milan – unlimited power. It is not a good thing that the finally is very difficult, nor that the stage itself is so easy. I haven’t been impressed with Consonni or Theuns but I will say they did well on stage 4. Staying together is the most important thing and I hope to see Skujins be a part of the train too. Stage 4 was an indication of just how fast he is.
Merlier – no Warlop. It is a big lose. Yet, we all know he can win without much support and it is not like the rest of the team can’t provide any support. It means he should aim for the wheel of Milan or Philipsen and hope he can beat them on the line.
Bauhaus – won here in 2022. I’ve said it before, Arndt and Pasqualon are strong riders for this type of finale.
Vernon – I hope to see him bring him a good result. The team has Strong and Asbroeck which on paper is good.
Who will win?
I think Jasper Philipsen will close out the race with a stage win.
