Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 – Stage 5 Preview

We move into another part of the race, the one the has climbing in it.


The stage has close to 3200 climbing meters in just 145.2 km.

It is a bit up or down all day. However, there is one point that will determine the outcome. That is of course San Giacomo. Everything before it is not difficult enough to make a big selection. Gino Mäder won on the climb in 2021 when he took his first GT stage win from a different direction.

It is a very steady climb.

The descent begins 23.5 km from the line. Looking at it, I hope they’ve fixed the potholes. I would categorize it is as a tricky descent and I think we will see moves here.

This is the last 9 km. It is not a long section, especially if you know how to recover on a descent. The last 750m are at 6.2%.


A tailwind for the finale is good for the race. A headwind could have killed the race a bit. You’ll notice a tailwind home after the descent, it makes it easier for moves to stick all the way.

How will the stage unfold?

San Giacomo (11.9 km at 6.2%) is a tough climb and the tailwind should help the selection progress. UAE are in the race lead but most of their climbing squad went with Almeida to France.

When I look through the teams, we have a few strong ones. EF with Carapaz, INEOS for Arensman / Pidcock, Lidl-Trek for Tao and Visma for Vingegaard. The last team holds the key. I think we will see them take control early on, Van Baarle is going to be the tractor and then it is just about setting the fiercest tempo you’ve ever seen before Vingegaard attacks.

Then the question is, who can follow him?


Ayuso – I doubt anyone can beat him in the sprint, if they take him to the line. On a 6% climb he might be able to follow Vingegaard as long as he sits in the wheel. He must not cooperate and the beat him in the sprint. That must be the plan.

Vingegaard – the earlier he makes his move, the higher the chance of dropping his opponents. He is excellent downhill and has the engine to finish it off. He is the man to beat.

Poole – he has been on the radar for some time, especially after his 5th on stage 7 in Critérium du Dauphiné 2023. How good is his kick if it comes down to it? 4th on Jebel Jais was an indication that he can.

Bardet – is it time to throw caution to the wind? He is a daredevil going downhill. He has not impressed me in yet this season but he has not been shy to work for teammates.

Martinez – if you go well in Algarve, you go well here. That is the simple logic. When you forget about his 2023 season and look solely on 2022, you will see him with a 2nd place on Col de Turini. He can handle big climbs but it has been a long time since then. As time goes by, he strikes me more as a medium-mountains rider with a good kick.

Hindley – more of a climber. I doubt he will win, it would have been better to finish at the top of San Giacomo (11.9 km at 6.2%).

Kämna – late attack option? Yes sir. And he is race smart like few.

O’Connor – he should be one of the best on the climb but the rest of the stage is not to his advantage.

Tao G. Hart – poor time trials this season. I expect him to go well on the climb but there might be a reason why so many seasons have been hampered by crashes. I don’t think he is that good downhill. He packs a good kick.

Mas – should be a solid top-10 tomorrow.

Who will win?

Jonas Vingegaard will solo it from the climb. That is my verdict.

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