Paris – Nice 2024 – Stage 6 Preview
A hilly day.
Route
The stage looks harder than it is really. I think the main point of action comes at Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup.
They almost reach the coast tomorrow.
Here you have the finale.
Here you have Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup, it is 30 km from home.
I love how they placed the bonus sprints this edition. Tomorrow, you can win seconds 21 km from home.
The last five km looks like this. Last 550m at 6.5%.
Weather
A day with a tough headwind. Then, as they hit the important ramps of the day, the riders will have a tailwind. It also means everyone will be fresh near the finale and some will be very cold.
How will the stage unfold?
A tough headwind as I just wrote. Breakaway stands no chance. Wet roads can see splits, especially on the descends. It will make a crash likely when they reach Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup, as the city roads will be wet and the pace high.
So, I see two scenarios. The first goes something like this: The GC men open up and a group makes it to the line. It needs to have Evenepoel in it, a rider from Bahrain-Victorious, Team UAE and Vlasov or Roglic. Is it really that likely? Too many cooks spoil the broth – others will join them and sit on.
Can the sprinters survive? A headwind all day, so it is more or less a “free ride”. I doubt it. Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup is a nasty climb. I still think the reduced GC group sprint is the most likely scenario. I think 10-15 riders make it to the line tomorrow.
Contenders
Luke Plapp – I think he will be able to keep the jersey tomorrow. However, I do wonder why he sat all the way at the back today very late in the finale? He could have been out of the GC had the group worked together after the intermediate sprint. He is a diesel but he proved on stage 4 that he can handle double digits. Plus, as a track rider, they know how to sprint.
Roglic – it’s time to wake up. No risk, no glory. Attack on Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup and go for the bonus seconds. It would not only be a good thing to do for himself but also for his team, they’ve spent a lot of time at the front and it has not been bearing fruit.
Evenepoel – hopefully, we see him risking it all tomorrow. He is a marked man, perhaps the most marked man here. On a climb such as Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup, he can make the difference if he wants to. It’s not a matter of tactics, just power. It’s time to let the legs do the talking. In a sprint, few beat him.
Almeida – 12th on the first test. I’m not impressed. I think the upcoming stages suit him better. However, he is by no means a bad puncheur or a slow finisher.
Skjelmose – I wouldn’t write him off. Cold as a spring day in Denmark and rain throughout the stage. Plus, a very likely scenario of a sprint? The only issue I see is his sprint, it was not impressive a few weeks ago. Still, he will hope for the podium and he had a good punch the other day.
Buitrago – loves double digits and don’t need to force anything. He went straight for the back wheel of Evenepoel today, I assume the same tactics will be applied tomorrow.
Pithie – can he survive the climbing, on paper yes.
Pedersen – any chance he sprints? With the weather in mind and the easy ride until the finale – on paper yes.
Trentin – never write the Italian off when it rains and he has a chance for a reduced sprint.
Who will win?
I’m going for Primoz Roglic. On a 6.5% sprint, he is deadly. Evenepoel and Skjelmose are his biggest competitors.
