Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 – Stage 4 Preview

This is what I would call a Giro-sprint-stage. They remind me a lot of the sprints we only see at Giro d’Italia, where you have a long and difficult climb in the opening half.

Route

I’m not certain why it turns all red near the crest. It is a regular climb.

Another day moving east. Finishing at the coast.

Valisco de Castelluccio hasn’t been used before in any big bike race. A long climb that will see some sprinters struggle.

The following 27 km are not that easy either. The chase can’t start here. First, they need to cover two descends and a short climb. The plateau up there looks spectacular before the climbing begins again. The descent looks technical.

Now the riders head east until the reach the circuit. Here you have the last 5500m and it can get a bit messy.

A fast descent on a road that could have been build by a kindergarten class. With 4250m left, the turn onto a better road. With 2900m left, they hit the flat straight on a super-wide road. Here you have time to move up if you were cautious on the descent.

Then you do a big dive into the righthand turn 1700m out. The road then rises all the way to the line with the run-in being just around 3%. The turn is 500m out.

Here you have the drag to the line. It feel feel a lot like today.

Weather

A day without rain, very little wind and not very warm.

How will the stage unfold?

Note the descent I mentioned can be wet, it means we can see a big split happening and likely crashes. That means the tempo will be high, GC teams want to push it and they will start to relax whenever they reach the bottom of the descent.

Overall, it just means two things: 1) Breakaway stands a very small chance, as the pace behind will be tough. 2) The pure sprinters will burn a lot of matches trying to get back on. 2900 climbing meters and 211 km. It will be the versatile sprinters than will do well.

Contenders

Jasper Phillipsen – he crashed today. The team took the front to early and in the end, he clipped the sprint train of Cofidis, when he was late on the breaks (what it looked to me, Robbie McEwan said it looked like he got a pedal in his front wheel). No news from the team and I assume that is good news. He was on his bike quite fast. Despite his crash, he starts as one of the main favorites due to his speed and versatility. However, it can also mean the legs don’t work as they are supposed to and he is dropped early on the climb.

Tim Merlier – I think he will spend too much energy getting back on.

Phil Bauhaus – I’ve said it before, he climbs well for a man his size. The team did a fantastic job today, that is the power of Nikias Arndt. He is one of the main contenders for tomorrow.

Jonatan Milan – again not in a good enough position. It is starting to be my description of him. Tomorrow is another good chance to take a win on home soil. We can clearly see his speed is very high.

Mayrhofer – another top-10 is likely. ‘

Girmay – not sure what happened but I assume he will get a better result tomorrow.

Vernon – late puncture today. He is a serious contender for the podium.

Who will win?

I will take a win for Jonatan Milan.