Paris – Nice 2024 – Stage 5 Preview
Some lessons were learned today. UAE not strong enough to keep it together and Evenepoel couldn’t benefit that much from Roglic’s poor performance.
Route
A good bit of climbing tomorrow.
The riders move south west tomorrow through Drôme.
I think overall, the climbs look more difficult than they are. Surely, for some of the pure sprinters they may get dropped. I think a very interesting section is the bonus sprint 10.6 km from home. It is where they cross the finish line for the first time.
This is what I’m contemplating. Someone attacks here for the bonus seconds. They need it. Especially Roglic, Skjelmose and Evenepoel. Do we see a move, where the sprinters then have to ease off the power for the upcoming short climb? It is merely 1000m at 6.2% but you can still build a small gap.
This is the finale. A road island 3000m out and a roundabout where both sides look equally fast 2000m out.
Weather
Weather
The headwind will likely make the life easier for the sprinters on the climbs. A strong tailwind sprint.
Contenders
Kooij – He should be fresh for the finale tomorrow. The last hill 10 km from home is to his advantage. I think only De Kleijn is quicker.
Pedersen – I think it is his last chance for a stage win. That means no fun and games with Skjelmose that close to home. I would have loved to see him slingshot him and then Mattias continued the attack on the climb. It is just unlikely. I think the sprint train has looked good on both stages, he should be fighting for the podium.
De Kleijn – had a hard day on the bike today. He is at his very best when the stage is completely flat. I do wonder if the stage today still is in the legs tomorrow. If not, I think he may struggle on the last hill or perhaps even before that. If the teams decide to give it to the sprinters, Trentin and Zijlaard will likely drop him off perfectly again.
Groenewegen – defending the jersey means weaker sprint train – in theory. Plus, no Matthews makes them lose an important member of the sprint train. A top-10 if he can handle the climbs.
Jakobsen – same story here. I think Lund Andresen and Eekhoff are excellent but they haven’t clicked yet. Three top-10s in 8 sprints this season. I think that paints the picture.
Bennett – I think he looks okay. 20th on stage 1 may not be as good as you like but it is a sign that he is climbing well, meaning he is in shape. I think he can top-10 tomorrow.
Pithie – A good looking stage for him. He is defending the points jersey, meaning he has two choices. Don’t contest the first, as it gives less points. Or go for it and hope someone is willing to take him to the line. If we see him in a regular sprint, I still think he is a top-10 contender.
Evenepoel – Set him up for the sprint, let him go off.
Skjelmose – He is race smart. He will know to watch Evenepoel, just as he did today.
Roglic – I’m not really impressed I must say. He must think outside the box tomorrow and it starts with a sprint.
Who will win?
I will take a stage win for Olav Kooij. Unfortunately, I think a regular sprint has the highest chance of succeeding as it is the last chance for the sprinters.
