Paris – Nice 2024 – Stage 4 Preview
We have a thrilling stage at hand.
Route
A day where it can explode everywhere. The most likely scenario is the uphill battle at Mont Brouilly.
Finale
The climbs look close together on the picture above. Here you can see it better. There are some long downhill sectors after the climbs, often 10-15 km between the crests and the beginning of the new climb. Therefore, it should end with a reduced peloton near the foot of the last climb.
Here you have the last climb. The 3D profile is not 100% accurate, bnut it is a steep climb – especially towards the end.
Weather
Not the warmest stage with a change of rain.
How will the stage unfold?
We could see three things happening.
The finale begins with the steepest part of Col de Durbize. There is a Mur section on it where some may be tempted to make their first move 56 km out. This is unlikely, as the peloton is big and team will have helpers getting you and that means you risk sacrificing your own chances later.
The next scenario is the bonus sprint with 32 km left. We have 6, 4 and 2 bonus seconds here and it would be a great little place to move away before the finale. The peloton is thinner and it depends on the constelation of riders getting away. If it has Primoz and Evenepoel, they can make a pact against Almeida here. That plays them up against UAE and I think they will take those odds.
The most likely, if you ask me, is the sprint up the last climb. The last 1000m are 9.3%. It suits a puncheur.
Contenders
Almeida – I was not surprised they would do well but I didn’t expect them to win. Pre-race, Almeida was their leader. Now that doesn’t mean the others have agreed on it or it has changed as they have three cards to play. I assume they ride for Almeida still. He needs to keep an eye open for the bonus sprint and not let a strong group get away. On the last climb, he should be close to the very best. How well does the Portugeese handle the cold? I’m not sure.
Evenepoel – I think he would like to burn a match or two at the bonus sprint and then keep on going. Just as we saw on stage 1. He goes very well on double-digits and enjoys rain. I would be very surprised not to see him finishing top-3.
Roglic – It is a big test. What I noticed on stage 1, before the intermediate sprint, was the fact he sat too far back. That becomes easier tomorrow as the sprinters won’t be there. Does he go well on double-digits? Yes. He won on Angrilu, Lagunas de Neila, that steep part of the Giro ’23 TT and the Osimo-stage in Tirreno-Adriatico ’23. He starts as the man to beat. Can he handle the cold? He used to make money in ski-sports.
Bernal – I had a big smile on my face when I saw him attacking. I have a hard time remembering how good he was. He never struck me as much of a puncheur. With the cold being an advantage for him, I hope to see him fighting for a top-5.
Jorgensen – many would call him a diesel, myself included. Yet, he goes well on double-digits. I don’t think he has the punch but I doubt they can drop him. A top-10.
Gall – goes well uphill and he will be happy the descends are easy. 4th in Faun-Ardeche makes be believe he should be with the best for a long time. However, as with Jorgensen, he does not have the sprint to win.
Gaudu – the form doesn’t look the best just now. Was it the weather in Gran Camino? Or were they solely riding for Martinez? He hasn’t been very good for 10 months so it would be uplifting seeing him fighting for the stage win. 6th in Classic Var is a good sign. Hopefully, a top-10 for him.
Skjelmose – now that was a poor TTT from the team. He climbing with the best in the french classics and he was second on Mur de Huy last season. He loves steep climbs, especially the shorter ones. Does he mind the rain? Less than others, that is my experience coming from Denmark. He will hope the second scenario happends and he is a part of it, it would help him move up in the GC.
Who will win?
I will take a win for Primoz Roglic.
