Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 – GC Preview

Let’s just keep going. It is not a half-bad Sunday when you get to preview both Paris-Nice and Tirreno – Adriatico.

Stage 1

Very similar to last year’s. We will have to see if the rain plays a huge part again.

Stage 2

It should be the first stage for the sprinters and having a good lead-out is the key.

Stage 3

A long day with a climb near the end. It looks easier than it is. I doubt some sprinters can hang on as the climb begins after 200 km of racing.

Stage 4

This is almost your classic Giro d’Italia stage with an early climb and then they can play cat and mouse afterwards. Almost 3000 climbing meters is a lot but they are mainly in the first half of the stage. We should see a sprint of some sort.

Stage 5

A HC climb!? Looking at it in detail on Veloviewer, the following descent looks tricky. Plus, the gradients rarely go above 6% on the climb, it may be more dull than you think. We have a wonderful and technical uphill finish on this stage.

Stage 6

Most important GC day. Monte Petrano is a big test, and I had a big laugh when I saw they had to visit Moria. This is the defining day.

Stage 7

The last stage is similar to the past editions with the sprint in San Benedetto del Tronto.

Contenders

To summarize: The most defining days look to be the TT and the two stages with mountains. I think there can be made an argument regarding the tougher stages gives an opportunity for a climber with good sprint to get a lot of bonus seconds too.

Thymen Arensman – He has had a good start to the season. 5th overall in Algarve was brilliant and maybe it could have been more if he didn’t crash on stage 3. I’m slowly figuring out what type of rider he is, and it seems a time trialist in a pure diesel manner. A Tom Dumoulin type. Given his time trial and climbing abilities, he will hope for a top-5 yet a top-10 is more realistic.

Enric Mas – often very consistent but a downside, as always, is the time trial. He has not raced yet this season but he tends to be ready whenever the season starts. He will fight for top-5.

Tao Geoghegan Hart – climbed well in Algarve but the time trial was nothing to write home about. It is something he has improved, just think back to the TT in the Giro d’Italia, finishing on the podium ahead of the likes of Almeida, Küng and Roglic. I think Monte Petrano is a climb that will suit him and I hope to see him challenge for the podium but a top-5 is more realistic.

Juan Ayuso – he has enjoyed some oneday races lately. Three of them and three podiums. He is looking mighty good and climbed well in the French Races. I think he will go well here as he has a good time trial and a good punch but I doubt he can win. A spot on the podium would be a big result for him.

Jonas Vingegaard – can anyone beat him? I really doubt it. He is the best climber in the world, it is a simple fact. He took three stage wins in O Gran Camiño just as in 2023. From what I know, he has been able to do the training required for the race (which he couldn’t do before Paris-Nice last year, as something came up). The team is strong and we will see what outcome they want for stage 5 and stage 6.

Max Poole – I think he can do a top-10 here. I was impressed with him in UAE Tour, especially since he has a fine time trial too.

O’Connor – I hate talking down to cyclists or criticize them but he bottled up Jebel Hafeet. The best thing he could have done was simply to attack and don’t look back. Perhaps it was my mistake overestimating him but all he ended up doing was closing gap after gap which ultimately cost him the win. New race, the AG2R riders are flying and Ben has become better against the clock. A podium contender nonetheless.

Carapaz – he hasn’t been at his very best this season, he usually saves himself for Grand Tours. A top-10.

Jai Hindley – time trialing is not his best attribute but he is a good climber. He falls into the same category as Carapaz, usually best at Grand Tours.

Martinez – maybe it opens up a door for Martinez. A good time trial and good form should be enough for a top-10.

Who will win?

Jonas Vingegaard.