UAE Tour 2024 – Stage 3 Preview
It is time for the first mountain stage.
Route
Almost completely flat fir the first 150 km, then the fun begins.
Pogacar has the KOM. Just under 46 minutes but drafting matter a whole lot.
Weather
Don’t think we will see echelons. Plus, not a lot of wind on Jebel Jais.
Contenders
In recent years, 2021 – 2023, we’ve only seen a sprint once. Vingegaard attacked in 2021, a sprint with small gaps in 2022 and Einer Rubio soloed last year. I wonder if people want to wait for the sprint.
A. Yates – Is it Tour of Oman tactics, ride for McNulty or stay in contention for as long as possible? Should be the second with Jebel Hafeet coming up too. In the last three editions, he has finished on the podium on this climb. I don’t see that changing tomorrow.
McNulty – race leader. They were just better than the others today. It is a long climb, even for him. He finished in the front group in 2023 and he likely worked for the team hard that day. It means he will be good enough to finish in the main group. If he loses the jersey, it will be to a teammate.
Vine – Good TT today. He is a very good climber on his day. The TT gives a small indication that he is in good shape right now, and I think he will finish in the front group too.
Bilbao – As Mr. Mole says about him, his uphill sprint isn’t as good as his flat one. A top-10.
O’Connor – 11th today is a good result. I do think he will be one of the riders willing to attack, that is his style. I would be very surprised to see him dropped, he is one of the best climbers here. I think the podium is reasonable for him.
Foss – 4th today. We will have to see, the climb is like a long time trial really. I don’t think they’ll drop him.
Rubio – last year’s winner. Showing you how it can be done. I don’t think alarm bells will ring if he attacks again this year, he lost more than a minute against the clock.
Wilder – 6th today. He is good on shorter climbs but it is not a lot of data for the long ones. He packs a good finish, and since we usually have 15-20 riders fighting for the stage win near the end, he will be there. He has a good uphill finish in him.
Poole – 14th today. Very impressive. He loves a long climb, a top-10 or atleast a finish in the front group.
Riccitello – I love him as an attacking option. A good signing for ISPT.
Who will win?
Something tells me that UAE can’t set up a train and drop everyone. They don’t have the climbing numbers. I think we will see attacks when the Vine-A. Yates-McNulty trio are left alone. Then the roles must be clear.
I somehow see A. Yates benefitting most from this. Three podiums in three tries. Tomorrow, he will finally win here.
