Santos Tour Down Under 2024 – Stage 4

Another one for Welsford. As someone mentioned on Twitter, it seems they found the right sprinter for Mullen and Van Poppel who are the strongest by far of the sprint trains here. I’ve mentioned stage 4 in the GC preview, it is the flattest of the stages.

Route

We have Gemmel Hill. 4.2 km at 4%. It shouldn’t be a big problem for anyone as it is the sole climb.

Finale

We have a corner late in the finale. It is 500m out. This sharp turn will stretch things out. It is also slightly uphill, but nothing much.

Weather

Calm winds and sunshine.

Contenders

Welsford – two times in a row. They’ve clicked from the very start. With a finale tomorrow where having a good lead-out is vital, he must start as the big favorite.

Girmay – it depends on where he starts his sprint. So far, it has been too far back.

Bauhaus – didn’t get into a good position today. That is the way of boulevard sprints and having no lead-out. He can fight for the podium.

Ewan – simply overmatched in the battle for positioning. Find Welsford wheel and hope to stay there. Add a sweeper if you lose the wheel. He is quick enough to win.

Viviani – good to see him being better today. I saw an INEOS rider drop off, likely Tarling. They have the speed and skill to fight for one of the better spots in the corner.

Kanter – another top-10.

Who will win?

I will go for Sam Welsford.